Sorted Weekly Tweets
Central Banking   Records Show Fed Wavering in 2007 4 all of their vaunted intelligence, the Fed was worried, but clueless in 2007 $$ Three Stages of Fed Grief: Key Quotes From 2007 Slowly realized the economy they overlevered was getting worse $$ Jan 18, 2013 Fed Concerned About Overheated Markets Amid Record [...]

Central Banking


  • Records Show Fed Wavering in 2007 4 all of their vaunted intelligence, the Fed was worried, but clueless in 2007 $$
  • Three Stages of Fed Grief: Key Quotes From 2007 Slowly realized the economy they overlevered was getting worse $$ Jan 18, 2013
  • Fed Concerned About Overheated Markets Amid Record Bond-Buying The sourcerer’s apprentices note there is a problem $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Paul Moreno: Gold, Greenbacks and Inflation: A History and a Warning Ppl forget the degree the Fed has debased $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Once you turn base money into short-term debt, can you go back? @interfluidity ideas getting deserved attention $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • First Shots Are Fired in Global ‘Currency War’ Japan leads “race 2 the bottom.” Who will b first 2 stop sterilizing? $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Currency Moves… & Central Bank Bravado Posit that the yen is falling due to war risks & Japan biz risks in China $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Abe Rocket-Start Lowers Sony Risk With Market Fuel Loose monetary has spillover benefits 2 indebted corporations $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • I’ll grant this: the government always has some role in money, even commodity money like a gold standard… Jan 12, 2013


Rest of the World


  • Pressure Rises on China to Scrap One-Child Policy No better way 2 have a demographic crisis; change long overdue $$ Jan 18, 2013
  • Default Alarm Rings as Trust Loans Jump Sevenfold China is so messed up that it makes the Eurozone look good $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Singapore Curbs Industrial Property Sales to Avert Bubble Increases bid-ask spread; can’t fight fundamentals $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Mongolia’s Erdenes TT Halts Coal Exports to Biggest Buyer China Probably either gross malfeasance or bribery $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • European Dividends Tumble to Four-Year Low as CEOs Hoard Favor European Exporters over their Domestic companies $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Euro at 10-Month High Poses Economic Threat, Juncker Says The #currencywars continue. Rule: Beggar thy neighbor $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Russia Says World Is Nearing Currency War as Europe Joins Accept export slowdown? Monetize debt? Stupid QE-like stuf? Jan 17, 2013
  • Rio Tinto CEO Steps Down Every CEO should have etched on his wall: “Paying up 4 scale acquisitions is dumb” $$ $RIO Jan 17, 2013
  • China Capital Flow: Foreign Direct Dis-Investment Foreign inv’t inflows falling, domestic inv’t outflows rising $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • China Starts Losing Edge as World’s Factory Floor SE Asia benefits as China becomes more expensive 2 operate in $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Norway Sees Deeper European Job Pain as Default Fears Recede Rising NOK makes exports less competitive &fewer jobs $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Often when FX vols spike it means something might break, like the SNB not able continue its EUR peg. But if… Jan 16, 2013
  • HSBC needs 2 end its Ping An silence with simple answers much alleged insider deal information has been circulating $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Mainland alchemists turn damaged zinc into solid gold An example of how Chinese banking system papers over bad debts $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Rumor: large backlog of Chinese companies want to IPO, but having hard time slowing the required 2 years of rising earnings $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Neighbors Grow More Wary of China Ex-pat Chinese moving in, looking a little graspy w/respect to resources, etc $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Mineworker Debt Mounts as South African Lending Booms There are few places in the world without debt overages $$ Jan 14, 2013


Market Impact


  • Deutsche Bank Derivative Helped Monte Paschi Mask Losses Bad investing led to losses 2 hide. Enter Deutsche Bank $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • reaching for yield @researchpuzzler notes tight junk spreads, but + Ed Meigs & Dan Fuss r  naysayers on junk credit $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Short-term Debt and Financial Crises: What we can learn from US Treasury Supply Qty issue ST fin’l sector debt->crisis Jan 17, 2013
  • 22 Insights From The Most Successful Investors In History Very nice assemblage of quotes from the best investors $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • [Will] the Bond Bubble Finally Burst? Synthesis of a variety of views: Yes, but not in the short-run… $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • FINRA to brokers: know your high-yield securities Intelligent words from FINRA; b able2show clients all possibilities Jan 16, 2013
  • The High Yield Market is “Completely Out of Control.” Watch risky debt buyers; c if they need things 2go right2survive Jan 16, 2013
  • Gold Forecasters Splitting on Peak for Bull Market Most-accurate gold forecasters>price will probably peak in 2013 $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Whatever Happened 2 Good, Old-Fashioned Accountants? @retheauditors explains y basic blocking&tackling go a long way $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Yale May Buy More Hedge Fund Assets After Favoring Cash Timing feels wrong here w/credit spreads tight & vol low $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Baupost Group Sitting On 116% Return From Madoff Claims Bankruptcy judge said “seller’s remorse,” denied his effort $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Leeway on Repo Rules Is Cut Back “…we’re basically saying all repos should be accounted for as borrowings,” $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Inside the Self-Driving Index Funds That Finish First @jasonzweigwsj $BLK low fees, shares sec lending revenue $$ Jan 15, 2013
  • How2use Twitter & Facebook 2 make $$ from shares Just watch: this causes the next ‘flash crash’ h/t: @abnormalreturns Jan 14, 2013
  • KRS Spin Machine Is Smearing The Truth Again Kentucky Retirement Systems does not use RFPs -> “pay to play” @ KRS $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • US Not So High Yield Bonds : “It’s Starting To Feel A Lot Like 2007″ Will supply grow, or will misfinancing start? $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • SP500 Revisited – Testing 1484/1500 zone and reversal after? Argues for a correction in stocks in the near term $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Hedge-Fund Leverage Rises to Most Since 2004 in New Year H0: flexible $$ overallocated to stocks now> correction due Jan 14, 2013
  • 39% of Fund Managers Beat the S&P in 2012 It was a growth year & not a value year. 48% would b the 10-yr average $$ Jan 13, 2013




  • I suppose Bloomberg could write a book about hidden billionaires, and call it “The Billionaire Next Door.”  #yeah $$
  • Erie Billionaire Hagen Revealed as Car Premiums Surge $ERIE interesting company w/a unique asset-lite biz model $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Hidden Billionaire Milking Saudi Dairy Fortune in Desert Bloomberg likes ‘outing’ obscure billionaires like this $$ Jan 14, 2013


Personal Finance


  • Why you can’t avoid dumb 401(k) mistakes Plan sponsors chase hot managers & avoid passive options $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Behind the indexed annuity curtain Avoid. Surrender charges r long & high 2pay commission; opaque int crediting $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • One in four savers has 401(k) ‘leakage’ Retirement seems far away, but $$ needs r near, so ppl tap their 401(k)s Jan 16, 2013
  • Seven Resolutions to Get Your Nest Egg in Shape Good basic advice 4 ordinary people taking care of the nest egg $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • E-Filing and the Explosion in Tax-Return Fraud Identity theft; 1 reason y I do it myself & file on paper $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Housing Problems: Where To Get Help @retheauditors gives advice to those having issues with foreclosures $$ #goodstuff Jan 13, 2013


Banks and Investment Banks


  • More Ideological Excuse Making for Bad Banks It takes two to tango; it takes two to make a loan. Both deserve blame $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • A tempest in a spreadsheet A reason y having robust “smell tests” r needed when mathematical models get complex $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Mortgage Nanny Added to Lender Job Description Caveat Emptor:May make probs worse by creating illusion of safety $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Wells Fargo to Start Jet-Leasing Venture FD: + $WFC | I like the fact that theyr starting small #organicgrowth $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Jefferies Sets Table in Pay Clash Or, they could jump 2 $JEF soon 2b $LUK. $$ motivates better, but conflicts occur Jan 16, 2013
  • Bankers Get IOUs Instead of Bonus Cash Will tie employees more tightly, unless they jump to related industries $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Report of $JPM Management Task Force Regarding 2012 CIO Losses [132pp PDF] If interested in $JPM, summary in 17 pgs $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Municipalities Should Ditch Wall Street Derivatives Deals If Wall St is on other side of table, watch your wallet $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Banks say new agency’s oversight is slow, costly Banks pine away over the regulatory laxity they had 6-10 years ago $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Goldman’s ‘Secret’ Team Shows Volcker’s Folly Difficult to stop prop trading, better 2 remake I-banks partnerships $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Bank Deal Ends Flawed Reviews of Foreclosures absurd, $$ will b distributed w/little regard 2 who was actually harmed Jan 13, 2013


Economic Policy


  • Portfolio Manager Creates Dazzlingly Deep Presentation On What’s Really Going On With The US Economy Long but good $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Obama Finds Path to Congress Deals Goes Through McConnell Give him his due; has a nose that can sniff out deals $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • The Next Tax Increase What the US Govt has belongs 2 the US Govt. What belongs 2u is subject 2 negotiation $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Swap the Debt Ceiling for a Rule That Makes Sense Maybe limit total liabilities of US Gov’t to 2x GDP? Way past that Jan 16, 2013
  • Why U.S. might be ‘a nation of deadbeats’ Consumers have been paying down debt, but walking away from more $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • A Credit Downgrade Warning Both Sides Should Listen To Rating agencies r more honest than US Govt. Fitch may d/g US $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Treasury Bill Rate Curve Inverts Amid Debt-Ceiling Showdown Bill curve showing some inversion due 2 debt ceiling $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Money-Printing Will Lead to an Inflation in Another Guise Debt overload & slack capacity short circuit credit growth $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Two Warning Signs for Treasuries “yield curve btw 2&10 years is starting to steepen” Resistance 2 neg real rates up $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • TIPS Implied Inflation 4 2018-22 rose over 2012; flat now 2014 Inflation rising $$ Fed target 2.5% Jan 16, 2013
  • US states flirt with major tax changes Red states moving toward sales & away from personal/corporate income taxes $$ Jan 14, 2013


States & Municipalities


  • California, Unsaved, Speeds Toward a Wall of Debt Constants in life that r not comforting: gimmicks in CA budget $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • California Could Be the Next Shale Boom State Energy could flow from the Land of Squandered Advantages $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Pension Funding Gap Widens for Big Cities Expect 2c many fights where bens cut 4 new, active & retired employees $$ Jan 16, 2013




  • Suitors Interested in H-P’s Autonomy, EDS Units Wouldn’t put 2 much into this; $HPQ won’t get good prices $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Genworth Shares Soar Amid Plan for Mortgage Insurer $GNW moves deck chairs on the Titanic; rewarded for now $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Chevron Signs Deal for More Oil Exploration Acres Off China FD: + $CVX smiles as it rides the tiger $$ #risks Jan 16, 2013
  • My Favorite Tobacco Stock Is Intel? @CharlesSizemore explains y it should deliver returns, amid hatred $$ FD: + $INTC Jan 16, 2013
  • TNT Left at Altar Gets No Immediate FedEx Deal “FedEx in a good position to wait this out & let TNT come to them.” $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Latest IPOs Arrive In The Form of New MLPs All of the new MLPs r energy-related $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • ARM CEO East Says Phooey to the ‘Transistor Cliff’ Cost, speed, & power use r the key factors 4 logic chips $$ Jan 14, 2013




  • Davos Pitch for Dynamism Rams Into End-of-Growth Debate I don’t think growth is ended, but bad finances interfere $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • Global Piracy @ 5-Yr Low 2012: Pirates boarded 174 ships globally v 439 in 2011, people taken hostage 585<-802 $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • NRA Labels Obama Hypocrite on Guns for Child Protection Administration doesn’t like the argument; hits close 2home $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Kidnap insurers eye sales as euro crisis bites Stable rates: More competition, & armed guards 4 sea transport $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Mathematicians coming of age to become the most sought after professionals Nerds of the world unite! Big data 2analyze! Jan 16, 2013
  • The Margin Debate Labor share of US GDP has fallen because growth in the global capitalist labor force, wages fall $$ Jan 13, 2013


Financial Blogging


  • Your guide 2the financial blogosphere Comprehensive list of finance bloggers. I’m listed under “Trading & Investing” $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • What are the 100 Top (Anglo-Saxon) Finance Blogs? A Pseudo-Scientific Study I ranked higher than I expected :) $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • The purpose of this site @reformedbroker ‘s excellent piece on how his blogging helps him think & invest better $$ Jan 14, 2013


Painting Kate Middleton


  • @judehere Perhaps this then? Jan 16, 2013
  • @judehere That’s okay. You say he painted the Queen? That’s interesting. Is there an image of that out on the web? Jan 16, 2013
  • ‘ @judehere She seems to be a nice lady, so I wouldn’t be a fan of that. But Freud died in 2011, so the possibility is not there. Jan 16, 2013
  • But this portrait of Kate Middleton is worse in my opinion No wonder only 19% like it. (2/2) $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • Learning to draw, I copied a photo of a friend w/pencil. Another friend said “You took a very pretty girl, & turned her in2 pretty girl” 1/2 Jan 16, 2013



Michael Pettis


  • Pettis: What I will watch in 2013: 10 things: hard commodity prices, trade numbers, Spanish Bonds, Target 2, & Japan (2/2) $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Pettis: What I will watch in 2013: 10 things: China growth, Debt trajectory, financial scandals, bank activities, inflation (1/2) $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Pettis: Imbalances can continue for many years, I argue, but at some point they become unsustainable & the world must adjust by reversing $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Pettis: Policymakers do this by shortening their time horizons &managing from crisis2crisis, rather than sorting out the underlying problems Jan 14, 2013
  • Pettis: policymakers… taking steps that protect them from the consequences of the crisis but that also make the crisis worse. $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Pettis: It is interesting that policymakers are so pleased by an end (temporarily, I assume) to the financing crisis. $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Pettis:We ended 2012 in a burst of optimism for Europe, w/everyone cheering Mario Draghi 4having “saved” the euro, but I am deeply skeptical Jan 14, 2013




  • Wrong: How to Find a Fund Manager Who Can Beat the Market Doesn’t understand difference btw correlation & beta $$ Jan 15, 2013
  • Wrong: US Budget : Federal finances continue to improve It is a *spending* problem that started w/Bush 43, not revenue Jan 15, 2013
  • Wrong: Municipal Bonds May Not Be Safe From Income Taxes Would be a big shift, hit blue states hard. Won’t happen $$ Jan 14, 2013
  • Wrong: Chris Hayes’ Brilliant Explanation Of Money Is One Of The Best Things We’ve Ever Seen On TV #goldstandard $$ Jan 13, 2013


Comments and Retweets


  • Good night. Blessings to all. Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling Think of judges in a court. No one will forgive a man for doing wrong in one area, because he has done good in others Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling It’s not a question of weakness but wrong. Divorce your wife for no good reason, cheat at your craft, all amounts 2 wrong Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling Good question. God created Lance with a weakness. If Lance had trusted God, he could have overcome it, but he didn’t. Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling Not those that are God-given. Mt 5:48: “Therefore you shall be perfect, just as your Father in heaven is perfect.” Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling One last point: in the view of Jesus is there is no balancing. The least amount of evil poisons any good. Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling Read some of the writings of Kahneman & Tversky. Bad things have 3 times the force of good things. Good doesn’t erase bad Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling Okay, I get it. But doing good things does not erase bad things. Doing things that are notably bad tarnishes anything good. Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling I have heard the word as a part of popular culture, but have no idea what it is beyond a phrase. Jan 18, 2013
  • @cogent_rambling Okay, I’ll bite. His charitable endeavors, but what else? Jan 18, 2013
  • @sallyeastman1 Well said Jan 18, 2013
  • My view: Lance Armstrong is best ignored. Close the browser window, change the channel on the TV, he will go away. I don’t care about him $$ Jan 18, 2013
  • @AboveAvgOdds Off to meet w/u & Chris Mayer in downtown Baltimore Jan 17, 2013
  • Endorse. I have read over half of these $$ RT @TheStalwart: The 22 books that Dylan Grice says you must read. Jan 17, 2013
  • @graemehein good point, but most simple models have obv intuition. Complex models have more potential 4 error b/c of 2nd+ order effects $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • @cate_long Others that did the same in 1994: Piper Jaffray’s Institutional Gov’t Income & FPA’s Fundamental US Gov’t Strategic Income funds Jan 17, 2013
  • @cate_long Combined w/levering them, and not having the mathematical savvy to price them right Story near the bottom Jan 17, 2013
  • @cate_long Cate, you’re right, I’m wrong. At the time, David Askin & those like him were notable. W/Citron it was mostly structured notes Jan 17, 2013
  • @kirstensalyer Sorry, that honor belongs to the first quantitative hedge fund manager, Ben Graham, who was doing that in the 1920s Jan 17, 2013
  • @cate_long Also used complex RMBS. There was kind of a contest 2c how much negative convexity one could absorb in exchange 4 yield Jan 17, 2013
  • RT @maxrudolph: #unintendedconsequences when pension regs set up EA designation cut off practitioners from ALM development. Still catchi … Jan 17, 2013
  • Well done $$ RT @LaurenLaCapra: Jim Chanos talks to @Reuters about Herbalife & whether Ackman or Loeb will win out: Jan 17, 2013
  • @finsovet @prieur @vitaliyk Honored 2b included in such a group Jan 17, 2013
  • Think this analysis is correct, but uncertain $$ RT @mickwe: 3D printing is a lot of hype and it’ll never go mainstream Jan 17, 2013
  • I just left a comment in “7 gut checks before the stock market’s opening bell” Jan 17, 2013
  • @niubi If so, good for him. He revolutionized my economic thinking with his last book. Looking forward to the next one. Review copy coming Jan 17, 2013
  • +1 RT @dpinsen: Paging @TomFriedman: comment on How a ‘model’ employee got away with outsourcing his work to China $$ Jan 17, 2013
  • +2, scrap IFRS RT @Alea_: +1 Britain should scrap IFRS accounting standards, MPs told Jan 16, 2013
  • @oddballstocks very different mindsets; marketing and operations r different from finance, which is still different from investing Jan 16, 2013
  • @oddballstocks I did that as well from 1992-1998. Tried very hard to select non-name-brand mgrs w/durable competitive advantages Jan 16, 2013
  • ‘ @ClayNickel It depends on how equitylike the bonds r, & the financing composition of the holders. If the bonds r financed w/sig debt.. $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • RT @Matthew_C_Klein: The big deal about the German gold story isn’t that they’re taking some of it out of NY but that they’re moving *al … Jan 16, 2013
  • RT @Matthew_C_Klein: @izakaminska has a thoughtful take on the base money debate between @interfluidity and @NYTimeskrugman … Jan 16, 2013
  • ‘ @joshuademasi Good point. After all, most nations would love to swap for Norway’s economic situation. $$ Jan 16, 2013
  • @earwulf Good insights both. We live in “interesting times” in the full meaning of the Chinese curse Jan 16, 2013
  • @ReformedBroker Rieder is a bright guy, as is my friend Ed Meigs at First Eagle; HY is okay for the short run, but 2 years out… $$ #Boom! Jan 16, 2013
  • @earwulf Yes Jan 16, 2013
  • @earwulf No, I don’t really find them persuasive. I do think that some Central Bank will stop sterilizing asset purchases, start new phase Jan 16, 2013
  • @JacPatterson I thought about that too, & think he really meant “English Language” Finance Blogs Jan 15, 2013
  • “But that also means you have to keep more $$ around if the puts get exercised, which Buffett had & many don’t.” Jan 15, 2013
  • @joelight @spbaines the paragraph that starts ‘To screen out such “closet indexers,”‘ is factually wrong, does not understand statistics Jan 15, 2013
  • @joelight @spbaines I’m not arguing w/R2 as a proxy for active share, though there r better measures; article says correlation, means beta Jan 15, 2013
  • +10 Mmmmm… RT @dpinsen: Bresaola, lemon, olive oil, Parmesan, and basil joining forces for a great sandwich. Jan 14, 2013
  • @abnormalreturns I’ve run into a *lot* of people trying to do this. Some are cleverer; not sure how it will work out… Jan 14, 2013
  • @JayLeonard but gold does control inflation and limits the government’s ability to use monetary policy for its own ends Jan 13, 2013
  • @JayLeonard Much of the difficulty is not gold vs not gold, but how banks were regulated — short liabs carrying long assets Jan 13, 2013
  • @GuldbergPeter Thanks, though I have heard that Canada *may* have issues. Jan 12, 2013
  • RT @GuldbergPeter: “@AlephBlog: Is there anyplace in the world that hasn’t overlent on real estate? Sweden, Canada and actually to some … Jan 12, 2013




  • My week on twitter: 40 retweets received, 1 new listings, 67 new followers, 65 mentions. Via: Jan 17, 2013
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