As previously discussed, the euro has a history of firming when a trade surplus develops, which works to contain net exports. Export friendly policy includes tight fiscal. And for all practical purposes a ‘sustainable’ trade surplus requires fx buying.
Japan is a recent example. When their dollar buying stopped a few years back the yen appreciated to the point where their trade surplus has faded. They are now looking at resuming (or may already have resumed?) fx purchases to reverse this effect.
By Stefan Riecher
Dec 17 (Bloomberg) — Euro-area exports fell for a second month in October as the economy struggled to pull out of its second recession in four years.
Exports from the 17-nation currency bloc declined a seasonally adjusted 1.4 percent from September, when they fell 1.3 percent, the European Unions statistics office in Luxembourg said today. Imports rose 0.6 percent in October and the trade surplus narrowed to 7.9 billion euros ($10.4 billion) from a revised 11 billion euros in the previous month. Labor- cost growth accelerated to 2 percent in the third quarter from 1.9 percent in the prior three months, a separate report showed.