Smart Money Commercial Hedgers Dump S&P 500, Signal Flips to Bearish
It's been a long climb back to my entry price for my S&P 500 signal, which has been bullish since March 26.
For most of that time, the signal was in the red -- but just this last week, it's scraped and clawed its way back to just a hair below the entry level of 1,397.11.
And now, after all that, my setup for the S&P 500 goes to bearish as of the coming week's open of trading!
This is based on a sudden collapse in the "smart money" commercial hedgers' futures and options positioning as a portion of the total open interest, according to Friday's Commitments of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
My gold setup also switches out of cash (where it's been two weeks) back to bullish as of Monday's open.
And my 30-year Treasury bond signal goes from bearish to cash. Ironically, I notice that my position hit its stop level when the bond briefly sold off Thursday. Alas, the bond bounced right back, and the signal would have been in the money if I hadn't been stopped out.
But I'm not too upset. I think it's 100 750 billion times more important to follow my signals religiosamente than to ignore a stop on the off-chance that the position will come back. That kind of second-guessing can screw you up big-time.
See more details on these and the other markets I trade using the COT data on my latest signals table. Good luck next week.
And now, after all that, my setup for the S&P 500 goes to bearish as of the coming week's open of trading!
This is based on a sudden collapse in the "smart money" commercial hedgers' futures and options positioning as a portion of the total open interest, according to Friday's Commitments of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
My gold setup also switches out of cash (where it's been two weeks) back to bullish as of Monday's open.
And my 30-year Treasury bond signal goes from bearish to cash. Ironically, I notice that my position hit its stop level when the bond briefly sold off Thursday. Alas, the bond bounced right back, and the signal would have been in the money if I hadn't been stopped out.
But I'm not too upset. I think it's 100 750 billion times more important to follow my signals religiosamente than to ignore a stop on the off-chance that the position will come back. That kind of second-guessing can screw you up big-time.
See more details on these and the other markets I trade using the COT data on my latest signals table. Good luck next week.