So oil is closing in on $100 and maybe it will head higher but, and this is the point, when there is a big move in a thing people tend to project the trend to simply continue indefinitely. This tends to be a behavioral thing. I have written about this before WRT to oil . About a year and a half ago I noted everyone being on the same side of the trade when oil first got to $75. Shortly after the post linked to above, I was on a radio show in California and the two money managers/hosts very excitedly were calling for oil to get to $100 quickly-again this was mid 2006. These are smart guys they just hopped on a very popular bandwagon which is easy to do. Last winter when oil went back down quickly to $50 a lot of folks came out of the woodwork calling for $40. Today people are looking up to $150. The next time it goes down people will call for it to keep going down. This repeats over and over with all sorts things. Gold is another one and the dollar too. This is not a directional call but I would say to not get too caught up with this sort of chatter. The path that I think supply and demand is on for oil leads me to believe it is the right place to be. If you agree you probably have oil stock exposure too. Oil at $96 today or $76 next month would not change my long term view. Gold plays the role of a diversifier for me in an equity-based portfolio. It has had a good run, if you own gold for its diversification properties and it has grown too big for your own liking you should sell some. When someone calls for $600 or $1000 that probably does nothing for the diversification angle. The dollar has some fundamental problems that make the case for it to go lower, clearly it could trade higher at anytime for longer than anyone might think but if you think the fundamentals point lower, well you know what you need to own. This is not helpful for people who trade because obviously comments from the right people help create volatility that you want to see. The dollar has had such a one way trade for so long it seems clear that it will rally (probably just counter-trend but who knows?) fast and big-ish enough to shake out plenty of dollar bears. The takeaway would be that there is a lot of heat and heated commentary around all of these things and if you describe yourself as long term you probably should not trade off of heated commentary and just stick to simple a simple exit strategy which hopefully doesn't have you trading too often, again if you are long term.
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