Contrasting Eur/U.S. Data/Forecasts
Karim writes: The single most important economic indicator in Europe was released today, the Composite PMI. For March, it was expected to increase to 48.2 from 47.5; it fell to 46.5, the lowest level since November. In the U.S.: 4-week average of initial claims fell to a 5yr low Existing single family home sales up [...]


Karim writes:

The single most important economic indicator in Europe was released today, the Composite PMI.

For March, it was expected to increase to 48.2 from 47.5; it fell to 46.5, the lowest level since November.

In the U.S.:

  • 4-week average of initial claims fell to a 5yr low
  • Existing single family home sales up 8.9% y/y and multi-family units up 22% y/y
  • FHFA new home prices up 6.5% y/y and NAR measure up 11.5% y/y
  • Philly Fed bounced 14 points in March and the Flash PMI (national measure) rose from 54.3 to 54.9 in March.

So, latest NowCasting forecasts:

Europe: Q1 -0.8% and Q2 revised from +0.1% to -1.05% after todays data
U.S.: Q1 +2.6% and Q2 revised from 2.8% to 3.4% over the past week (they will not account for sequester hit as forecast simply based on incoming data flow).

Euro PMI (white) vs U.S. ISM Mfg (orange) and Services (yellow): link

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