The single most important economic indicator in Europe was released today, the Composite PMI.
For March, it was expected to increase to 48.2 from 47.5; it fell to 46.5, the lowest level since November.
In the U.S.:
- 4-week average of initial claims fell to a 5yr low
- Existing single family home sales up 8.9% y/y and multi-family units up 22% y/y
- FHFA new home prices up 6.5% y/y and NAR measure up 11.5% y/y
- Philly Fed bounced 14 points in March and the Flash PMI (national measure) rose from 54.3 to 54.9 in March.
So, latest NowCasting forecasts:
Europe: Q1 -0.8% and Q2 revised from +0.1% to -1.05% after todays data
U.S.: Q1 +2.6% and Q2 revised from 2.8% to 3.4% over the past week (they will not account for sequester hit as forecast simply based on incoming data flow).
Euro PMI (white) vs U.S. ISM Mfg (orange) and Services (yellow): link