Gold Bugs Are Getting Antsy!
Tuesday, March 12, 9:25 a.m. Gold bulls have been suffering through the longest, but not largest, decline in gold since its latest 12-year bull market began in 2001. Gold has now been down for 19 months since hitting a record high in August, 2011.   Gold bulls are not worried that the bull market might [...]

Tuesday, March 12, 9:25 a.m.

Gold bulls have been suffering through the longest, but not largest, decline in gold since its latest 12-year bull market began in 2001.

Gold has now been down for 19 months since hitting a record high in August, 2011.  

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Gold bulls are not worried that the bull market might be over. But they are getting antsy and anxious to see something get started on the upside as can be seen in the day-to-day volatility lately. 

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Gold is spiking up this morning, up $16 an ounce at $1,594 at the moment, reportedly on bargain hunting and short-covering, with no event or particular fundamental sparking it.

It spiked up similarly last week, then plunged back down, and is again short-term oversold beneath its 30-day m.a. (which is at $1,619 but declining).

We will just follow our technical indicators (not shown)

What? A Wall Street firm Is admitting seasonality is real?

Wall Street is famous for insisting the market cannot be timed, that retail investors need to simply buy whatever Wall Street sells them and hold on through whatever comes along. Of course, that is not what they do with their own money, or for their larger clients. Nor is it what corporate insiders do with their own money.

So there is reason for some concern that corporate insiders are selling heavily again. But the market cannot be timed by their activity, as they usually sell early while there is still enough strength to absorb their sales, and begin buying early while stocks are still falling.

But it was interesting that in his latest notes to clients well-known Goldman Sachs Asset Management economist Jim O’Neill, currently bullish, did not mention insider selling as a concern but said, “I am not confident about what happens next as to whether all these trends [U.S. bond, equity, and currency markets] are going to continue, not least because May is now less than two months away and the infamous “Sell in May and Go Away.”

He is right to be concerned, since following a Sell in May discipline has beaten buy & hold significantly over the long-term, and while taking only 50% of market risk.

Actually our Seasonal Timing Strategy, which has been independently tracked and proven to beat Sell In May by a wide margin, can get its exit signal as early as mid-April.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   What Investors Need To Realize After The Terrific Jobs Report!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report: There is a new Global Markets update (Canada, South Korea, India, China, Japan, Brazil, Germany, Emerging Markets) from last evening in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. An in-depth U.S. market, gold, bonds, update will be there for you tomorrow.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market.

A quiet day, with the Dow trading in a narrow range of only 75 points from its intraday low to its intraday high, and closing on its high. Volume was light at 0.6 billion shares traded on the NYSE, 1.6 billion on the Nasdaq.

The Dow closed up 50 points, or 0.3%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.3%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.3%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.3%. The Russell 2000 closed unchanged. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.1%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.3%.

Gold closed up $1 an ounce at $1,578.

Oil closed down $.10 a barrel at $91.85.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.2%.

The U.S. Treasury bond etf TLT closed up 0.1%.

Yesterday in European Markets.

European markets closed mixed yesterday. The overall Europe Dow closed up 0.1%. Among individual countries, the London FTSE closed up 0.3%. The German DAX closed down 0.1%. France’s CAC closed up 0.1%. Ireland closed up 0.6%. Italy closed down 0.7%. Spain closed down 0.9%. Russia closed down 1.2%.

Asian Markets closed down last night.

The Asia Dow closed down 0.2%.

Among individual markets:

Australia closed down 0.6%. China closed down 1.0%. Hong Kong closed down 0.9%. India closed down 0.4%. Indonesia closed down 0.4%. Japan closed down 0.3%. Malaysia closed up 0.1%. S. Korea closed down 0.5%. Singapore closed up 0.3%. Taiwan closed down 0.6%. Thailand closed down 0.1%.

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Markets This Morning:

European markets are mixed this morning. The Europe Dow is up 0.2%. Among individual countries the London FTSE is up 0.1%. The German DAX is down 0.1%. France’s CAC is up 0.1%. Norway is up 0.3%. Portugal is up 0.1%. Spain is down 0.1%. Switzerland is up 0.3%. Italy is down 0.1%. Russia is down 0.6%.

Oil is up $1.00 a barrel at $93.06.

Gold is up $16 an ounce at $1,594.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

This week will be a very light week for potential market-moving economic reports, but will include the Small Business Optimism Index, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, the Fed’s NY State Mfg Index, etc. To see the full list click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

There were no reports yesterday.

This morning’s only report is the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which rose 1.9 to 90.8 in February, which is still low by historic comparisons. Within the report 33% of small-business owners reported sales were lower over the last three months, only 19% reported higher sales. NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg said, “While Fortune 500 are enjoying record earnings, Main Street earnings remain depressed.”

Our pre-open indicators have been flat all morning.

Our Pre-Open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 5 points or so in the early going this morning, meaningless as to direction.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: What Investors Need To Realize After The Terrific Jobs Report!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report: There is a new Global Markets update (Canada, South Korea, India, China, Japan, Brazil, Germany, Emerging Markets) from last evening in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. An in-depth U.S. market, gold, bonds, update will be there for you tomorrow.

I’ll be back with the next regular blog post on Thursday morning at 9:25 a.m.

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