Jack's Wrap for 02/20/2013 - Nasdaq, Correction... Index Charts At 70 RSI's......
Posted on February 20, 2013 at 18:15 PM EST
  There's a lot to talk about and not very much to talk about. If I kept it really simple I could write one small paragraph and be done with it. However, some explaining of things on a deeper level is necessary here. The market stayed overbought for most of the time on the daily index charts. Overbought enough for many to believe a strong, nasty pullback was imminent, and those who thought that made the terrible mistake of shorting the market too quickly. They forgot that overbought unto itself is not a sell signal. Yes, selling will ultimately have to take place once you're overbought enough, but timing it can be very difficult. You want to see some evidence first that the top is likely in. Sometimes you get lucky and get topping candle sticks. The market isn't always that friendly, so there was also the chance we'd see the market top such as it did today, without the classic topping stick. It was just a steady move lower that accelerates late in the day on increasing volume, with many key stocks breaking down on the same day. That's what we got today as CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) and the entire agriculture sector gave way. The Mosaic Company (MOS), Monsanto Company (MON), Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT), and many others were all losing key moving average support levels. We also saw the Nasdaq selling really take off late as the leaders there all had double digit losses rarely seen these days.Apple Inc. (AAPL), Google Inc. (GOOG), Priceline Inc. (PCLN), and Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG) leading the way down there. The big-cap leaders broke. The leading sector broke in those commodity stocks, and gold got annihilated again as it is in a strong, bear market, along with silver. It should only worsen over the years to come with strong rallies in between, of course. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is at oversold levels rarely seen with sub-20 RSI's on the daily chart. The market sent a message today that the correction is likely under way, and probably has a decent ways to go before it's over, with lots of up days in between. Trade accordingly. So what was the catalyst that finally got the market to snap down you ask. The answer came from those weekly charts. When you're in a strong bull market, the daily charts can stay overbought for a lot longer than one would think possible. Sentiment erodes some but doesn't reach anything that says run for the hills, so overbought daily charts alone aren’t enough. Yesterday, and early on today, we saw the weekly index charts reach 70 RSI's in many places. The NYA, WLSH, small-caps, and mid-caps, all hit 70-74 on their RSI's. The S&P 500 got to 69. Good enough. The Nasdaq got to 65, but only because Apple is in a massive bear market. Most of the key index charts hit 70 RSI's on both the daily and weekly charts, and that's when the rubber band finally snapped. Add in the leader in the agricultural sector, CF, warning on their earnings report this morning, which knocked all those stocks down, and the selling was on, especially on the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq leads both ways and today was no exception. With leaders breaking, volume increasing, and the RSI's over 70 across the board, the market finally gave it up today. More selling is likely soon. When I study today's breaks it tells me the market will likely need some time before it's ready to do something special again to the upside. Never a guarantee that'll be the case but the breaks, and many of them on large gap downs, are the real deal and will be tough to capture back. The Dow closed at 13,927. It has the first key-support level directly below, or the 20-day exponential moving average at 13,891. Once that breaks, and it should, even if it bounces first, the next key level is its 50-day exponential moving average at 13,649. That could get tested or breached over time. The S&P 500 closed at 1512. Its 20-day exponential moving average is only five points away at 1507. That should get taken out in time, again, even if we rally a bit off it first. Then its key 50-day exponential moving average is at 1479. That could get tested in time. Strong support from 1479 down to 1470. Finally we have the Nasdaq. It closed at 3164. It's the first sector to lose the 20-day exponential moving average, which is now five points above at 3169. It also lost key, gap support today at 3178. No fight at all. Next support is at its 50-day exponential moving average at 3118. Below that is gap at 3080. It could get tested in time. There will be lots of bounces up along the way so be prepared. The fact that we're likely into the beginning stages of a correction does not mean the market has turned bearish. The market got ridiculously overbought on both the daily and weekly index charts, and need time now to unwind themselves. That’s part of the game. You may not like it, but that's the game folks. Your job is to be patient and wait for the right set-ups again over time. Patience is the hardest thing for traders to exercise, and something everyone needs to learn. If you play too heavily, or get sucked in to an up day before the correction is done, you'll feel some unnecessary pain. There's still the real chance that this will be nothing more than a normal correction, but I am always on guard in case it's more. For now, I don't see that as a reality. Don't let some selling scare you away. As long as the market holds key-support levels, and puts in bottoming sticks, things are fine. For now, again, keep it light and be very patient. Peace, Jack
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