Sell on expectation the rally is over or buy the dip?
Thursday, February 14, 9:25 a.m. The market is overbought above its 50-day m.a. The popular opinion is widespread that the market will top out from that overbought condition. Even the short-term technical indicators are now giving that indication.    Lots of choices for investors; There won’t be a pullback so no need to even think [...]

Thursday, February 14, 9:25 a.m.

The market is overbought above its 50-day m.a. The popular opinion is widespread that the market will top out from that overbought condition.

Even the short-term technical indicators are now giving that indication.

021413a  

Lots of choices for investors;

  • There won’t be a pullback so no need to even think about it?
  • Hold through whatever develops on expectation of only a brief pullback to alleviate the overbought condition before the rally resumes?
  • Try short-term trading to time a pullback and get back in at somewhat lower prices?
  • Sell out and take downside positioning on expectation of something more serious?
  • Just wait a bit and then buy the dip?
    We say what we think and expect in the new issue of our newsletter from yesterday afternoon. Subscribe now for immediate access to it. 
Jack Welch no longer thinks economic reports are being faked?

Former G.E. CEO Jack Welch was on CNBC this morning. His assessment is that the U.S. economy is really doing okay. He says don’t even worry if the next concern, the automatic defense cuts take place (sequestration), because it would only slow the economic growth fractionally.

I guess that means he now believes the economic reports, no longer thinks the government is manipulating them, which he ranted about so vehemently for six months prior to the election on financial TV shows, in NY Times articles, on Twitter, etc.

Oh well, it got him a lot of publicity and no doubt sold a lot of his books.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: The Recovery Continues To Topple ‘Big-Picture’ Theories!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report: The new issue of the newsletter is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. from yesterday.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market.

A mixed day in quiet trading. The Dow traded in a narrow range of 85 points.

The Dow closed down 35 points, or 0.3%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.1%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.1%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.3%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.3%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.4%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.2%.

Gold closed down $9 an ounce at $1,644.

Oil closed down $0.40 a barrel at $97.11 a barrel.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.1%.

The U.S. Treasury bond etf TLT closed down 0.8%.

Yesterday in European Markets.

European markets closed up yesterday. The London FTSE closed up 0.3%. The German DAX closed up 0.7%. France’s CAC closed up 0.3%. Greece closed up 1.7%. Ireland closed up 1.6%. Italy closed up 0.4%. Spain closed up 0.9%. Russia closed up 1.3%.

Asian Markets closed mixed Tuesday night and again last night.

The Asia Dow closed down 0.1% Tuesday night and up 0.1% last night. Markets in China and Hong Kong were closed Tuesday night and last night for holidays.

Among individual markets that were open last night:

Australia closed up 0.7%. India closed down 0.6%. Indonesia closed up 0.4%. Japan closed down 0.2%. Malaysia closed up 0.1%. New Zealand closed up 0.4%. South Korea closed up 0.2%. Singapore closed down 0.3%. Taiwan closed up 0.2%. Thailand closed up 0.8%.

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Markets This Morning:

European markets are down this morning. The Europe Dow is down 1.1% Among individual countries the London FTSE is down 0.7%. The German DAX is down 1.0%. France’s CAC is down 0.6%. Spain is down 1.6%. Italy is down 0.9%. Russia down 1.4%.

Oil is up $.40 a barrel at $97.41.

Gold is up $3 an ounce at $1,647.

This Morning in the U.S. Market:

This week is another very light week for potential market-moving economic reports, Retail Sales, Empire State Mfg Index, Industrial Production, and a few others. To see the full list click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

There were no reports Monday.

Tuesday’s only report was the Small Business Optimism Index, which ticked up from 88.0 in December to 88.9 in February.

Yesterday’s only report was that Retail Sales ticked up only 0.1% in January, and 0.2% excluding car sales. Both numbers were slightly better than the consensus forecast for overall sales to be flat, and up 0.1% ex-autos. 

This morning’s only report is that new weekly unemployment claims fell by 27,000 last week to 341,000, much better than the consensus forecast of a decline to 360,000. And the four-week moving average ticked up 1,500 to 352,000.

The pre-open indicators remain negative as they have been all morning.

Our Pre-Open Indicators:

Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being down 60 points or so in the early going this morning.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: The Recovery Continues To Topple ‘Big-Picture’ Theories!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report: The new issue of the newsletter is in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website. from yesterday.

I’ll be back with the next regular blog post on Saturday morning, as usual later than the week-day posts, probably around 11 a.m.

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