What Now? S&P 500 Is Back at Previous Secular Bear Peaks!
Saturday, February 9, 12 noon. The S&P 500 has reached the level of its previous two peaks in the secular bear market that began in 2000. It’s also being observed that the 2009-? cyclcal bull market is getting long in the tooth. So there are important questions being asked. Are we near the end of [...]

Saturday, February 9, 12 noon.

The S&P 500 has reached the level of its previous two peaks in the secular bear market that began in 2000.

It’s also being observed that the 2009-? cyclcal bull market is getting long in the tooth.

020913h

So there are important questions being asked.

Are we near the end of the cyclical bull market that began in March, 2009, with another leg down in the secular bear approaching? Or if the S&P 500 breaks out to higher highs will it mean the secular bear market has ended and the next secular bull market has begun (Dow 50,000 here we come)?   

In the new era of anyone with a computer being able to launch blogs, and being welcomed to contribute opinions to websites (Forbes now has more than 800 contributors providing unpaid content to their Forbes.com site, Huffington Post more than 3,500) there is no shortage of opinions.

And they are running off in all directions, so investors can pretty much find any number of opinions to support whatever their own expectation may be, or more likely to provide more than the normal amount of confusion in their thinking.

Lest you think the S&P 500 chart indicates that if the S&P breaks out to higher highs it will provide proof that the secular bear market is over and we can relax, have a look at the Dow chart.  

020913i

The Dow broke out above its 2000 peak in 2007, significantly so, convincing many that the so-called secular bear didn’t even exist, before making up for it on the downside as the secular bear continued.

So be careful about accepting opinions either saying that the S&P’s upside is over because it has reached its previous peak, OR that if it breaks out it indicates the secular bear is over.

Secular bear markets usually last for about 17 years and it’s my opinion, expressed often, for instance a month ago (‘Yeah But – Where Are We In the Secular Bear Market-)   that there will be one more leg down at some point.

But anything can happen in markets, so our approach has always been to use technical analysis to let the market tell us what it is actually doing, rather than what opinions think it should be doing.

By following intermediate-term buy and sell signals based on money flows, internal strength, momentum reversal indicators, etc., one is likely to be on the right side of intermediate-term moves in either direction if they then morph into something more significant like new bull or bear markets.

So we will simply continue to follow our indicators rather than try to sort through the hundreds of opinions as to which is likely to be right or wrong.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: The Recovery Continues To Topple ‘Big-Picture’ Theories! 

Subscribers to Street Smart Report:  In addition to the important charts and updates in the ‘premium content’ area of this morning’s blog, there will be an important hotline this afternoon, and we will have an in-depth ‘Global Markets’ update in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website early next week.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market.

A positive day going into the weekend. Volume was light, probably due to the major snow storm expected in New York and the rest of the Northeast, with fewer than 0.6 billion shares traded on the NYSE, 1.75 billion on the Nasdaq.

The Dow closed up 48 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.6%. The NYSE Composite closed up 0.5%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.9%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 1.1%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.6%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.4%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed unchanged.

Gold closed down $3 an ounce at $1,667.

Oil closed down $0.06 a barrel at $95.77.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.1%.

The U.S. Treasury bond etf TLT closed up 0.4%.

Asian markets closed mixed in their last session of the week.

The Asia Dow closed down 0.1% Thursday night (Friday in Asia).

Among individual markets:

Australia closed up 0.7%. China closed up 0.5%. Hong Kong closed up 0.2%. India closed down 0.5%. Indonesia closed down 0.3%. Japan closed down 1.8%. Malaysia closed up 0.3%. New Zealand closed up 0.7%. South Korea closed up 1.0%. Singapore closed up 0.3%. Taiwan closed up 0.3%. Thailand closed down 0.2%.

Yesterday in European Markets.

European markets closed up fairly sharply yesterday. The London FTSE closed up 0.6%. The German DAX closed up 0.8%. France’s CAC closed up 1.3%. Italy closed up 1.4%. Spain closed up 2.0%. Greece closed up 1.7%.

Global markets for the week.

A mixed week in the U.S., but a quite negative week in most other global markets.


THIS WEEK (February 8)
DJIA13992- 0.1%
S&P 5001517+ 0.3%
NYSE8935- 0.3%
NASDAQ3193+ 0.4%
NASD 1002775+ 0.4%
Russ 2000913+ 0.3%
DJTransprts5911+ 0.9%
DJ Utilities474Unchgd
XOI Oils1,354- 1.0%
Gold bull.1,667unchgd
GoldStcks152.43+ 0.3%
Canada12801+ 0.3%
London6263- 1.3%
Germany7652- 2.3%
France3649- 3.3%
Hong Kong23215- 2.1%
Japan11153- 0.3%
Australia4989+ 1.0%
S. Korea1950- 0.4%
India19484- 1.5%
Indonesia4491+ 0.2%
Brazil58497- 3.1%
Mexico45089- 1.5%
China2545+ 0.5%
LAST WEEK (February 1)
DJIA14009+ 0.8%
S&P 5001513+ 0.7%
NYSE8965+ 0.7%
NASDAQ3179+ 0.9%
NASD 1002763+ 1.0%
Russ 2000911+ 0.7%
DJTransprts5857- 0.2%
DJ Utilities474+ 1.0%
XOI Oils1,368+ 2.9%
Gold bull.1,667+ 0.5%
GoldStcks151.94+ 0.7%
Canada12768- 0.4%
London6347+ 1.0%
Germany7833- 0.3%
France3773- 0.1%
Hong Kong23721+ 0.6%
Japan11191+ 2.4%
Australia4941+ 1.7%
S. Korea1957+ 0.6%
India19781- 1.6%
Indonesia4481+ 1.0%
Brazil60351- 1.3%
Mexico45768+ 0.4%
China2532+ 5.6%
PREVIOUS WEEK (January 25)
DJIA13895+ 1.8%
S&P 5001502+ 1.1%
NYSE8904+ 1.3%
NASDAQ3149+ 0.5%
NASD 1002736- 0.3%
Russ 2000905+ 1.4%
DJTransprts5870+ 3.1%
DJ Utilities470+ 1.6%
XOI Oils1,330+ 2.0%
Gold bull.1,659- 1.5%
GoldStcks150.82- 6.5%
Canada12816+ 0.7%
London6284+ 2.1%
Germany7857+ 2.0%
France3778+ 1.0%
Hong Kong23580- 0.1%
Japan10926+ 0.1%
Australia4858+ 1.3%
S. Korea1946- 2.1%
India20103+ 0.3%
Indonesia4437- 0.6%
Brazil61169- 1.3%
Mexico45575+ 0.8%
China2398- 1.1%

Premium Content Area.

For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.

To obtain access please click on the ‘Subscribe’ link. It will take you to an information page on subscribing to Street Smart Report, a subscription to which includes access to the premium content area of this Street Smart Post blog.

In the Premium Content area this morning. The stock market, gold, and bond signals and charts.


*Premium Content*

Please Login or Subscribe to view this content.

Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will be another very light week for potential market-moving economic reports, Retail Sales, Empire State Mfg Index, Industrial Production, and a few others. To see the full list click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

I’ll be back with the next blog post on Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.

To read my weekend newspaper column click here: The Recovery Continues To Topple ‘Big-Picture’ Theories!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report: In addition to the important charts and updates in the ‘premium content’ area of this morning’s blog, there will be an important hotline this afternoon, and we will have an in-depth ‘Global Markets’ update in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website early next week

Non-Subscribers:

We can help you not only make more profits, but just as importantly avoid losses, and at very reasonable cost!

SUBSCRIBE NOW! To get all of this:

(The equivalent of four or five normal newsletters at the cost of one)

  • The 8-page Street Smart Report newsletter every 3 weeks.
  • Hotline Updates whenever signals or recommendations change.
  • Two specific portfolios (Seasonal Timing & Technical Analysis Timing)
  • A 6-page Mid-Week Markets Report every week.
  • A 4 to 6 page Gold, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Report every three weeks.
  • A 4 to 6 page Global Market Report every three weeks.
  • Sy’s weekly column on markets and the economy every Friday.
  • Access to Premium Content area of this Blog, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday a.m.

Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds. Highly regarded and in our 26th year. As a bonus for a one-year subscription you will also receive my latest book Beat the Market the Easy Way- Proven Seasonal Strategies That Double the Market’s Performance. Click here for subscription information.

This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning and at occasional times in between! Follow it via the RSS feed or follow it in Twitter (the ‘handle’ is @streetsmartpost) so you won’t miss any posts.

**** End of Today’s post*****

Stock Market XML and JSON Data API provided by FinancialContent Services, Inc.
Nasdaq quotes delayed at least 15 minutes, all others at least 20 minutes.
Markets are closed on certain holidays. Stock Market Holiday List
By accessing this page, you agree to the following
Privacy Policy and Terms and Conditions.
Press Release Service provided by PRConnect.
Stock quotes supplied by Six Financial
Postage Rates Bots go here