As the Dow passed 14K and the view is turning towards the belief that the financial crisis is over, the logical conclusion is that we are seeing the birth of a new secular bull. Indeed, I examined the kurtosis of stock returns and found that it is falling.
Tails are getting thinner
For non-geeks, kurtosis is the measure of how fat the tails are in a return distribution. There are different kinds of fatness, as shown in the diagram below. Here is one explanation:
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