Hot and Cold ETFs for January
Posted on February 03, 2013 at 12:33 PM EST
Major Stock Indexes and ETFs have a great January Major U.S. stock and ETF indexes had a good month as the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) advanced 5.04 percent during the month while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) climbed 5.76 percent and the Nasdaq Composite (NYSEARCA:QQQ) 4.07 percent. The New Year also brought a rebalancing of successful and unsuccessful sectors and their related ETFs. The energy and emerging markets ETFs were hot. Meanwhile, the winter chill cooled off the metals sector as well as the volatility ETFs. The hot ETFs were abundant. Some interesting examples were: MarketVectors Vietnam ETF (VNM) +18.88 percent MarketVectors Oil Services ETF (OIH) +12.2 percent Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN) + 12.2 Vietnam has been receiving plenty of attention from fund managers. In addition to the fact that the nation’s workforce is well-educated and modestly compensated (compared to China) Vietnam has plenty of natural resources. It is the second-largest exporter of coffee in the world. It is a net exporter of oil . . . and let’s not forget about rice . Although VNM progressed past a golden cross on January 28, the last day of the month dragged it down by 4.38 percent. Despite the setback, VNM finished January worth 18.88 percent more than its value on New Year’s Eve. The oil services sector made huge gains in January. The big players such as Schlumberger, Halliburton and Diamond Offshore are all components of a leading oil sector ETF, (OIH.) The sector which received the most attention in January was the solar industry. All it took was a January 2 announcement of the sale of Antelope Valley Solar Projects to a subsidiary of Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway, to convince investors that the Midas touch was finally pulling solar out of its slump. What followed included a 16-percent jump by Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN) in two days. Plans which have allowed individuals and businesses to sell their unused solar power back to their local utilities have reduced the cost problem, which had intensified when government subsidies disappeared. Beyond that, the fiscal cliff compromise included some benefits for the solar industry and China just can’t get enough thin film solar panels. Those with strong commitments to the oil and coal industries hate solar but like it or not: Solar is here to stay. A good sampling of ETFs from the chilly sectors would include these popular plays: iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETF (VXX) -24.5 percent MarketVectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) -10.2 percent Global X Silver Miners (SIL) -8.5 percent With the newfound spirit of cooperation in our nation’s Capitol, the VIX (Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index) has been getting hammered. With the election behind us, the fear factor has withered nearly as much as the Wicked Witch of the West in a dunk tank. There are currently nine VIX futures contracts, with the longest extending to October of 2013 – and all of them are presently below the 20-year average for the VIX, which is just above 20. Gold Miners had an awful January. The miners are suffering because the price of gold is retreating. Although economic instability in the wake of the financial crisis – followed by the European sovereign debt crisis – sent gold skyrocketing, the current outlook for global economic expansion has put the chill on the yellow metal. The IMF’s January 23 release of its World Economic Outlook Update anticipated expanding GDP growth for both advanced and emerging market economies. After 278 European banks announced plans for an early repayment of €137.2 billion toward the first tranche of LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operation) loans, enthusiasm for investing in gold deteriorated even further. Because the future looks less bullish for gold, the outlook for gold miners appears worse. Silver miners suffer from the same problems experienced by the gold miners, although they have the additional problem of political uprisings taking place in the countries where their mines are located. Worker revolts have come at a time when miners are facing a slackening demand. As a result, the Global X Silver Miners ETF was fortunate to face a decline which did not exceed the single-digit range. January’s most widely-popular economic indicators became a winning trifecta at month’s end. After the Santa Claus Rally, the First Five Days and the January Barometer were all positive, there was a bit of icing for the cake. The Stock Trader’s Almanac, which created the January Barometer, factored-in the element that this was a post-election year – the fifth such year when all three readings were positive. Three of the four prior years with this pattern have ended with the S&P 500 advancing more than 20 percent and in one case (1997) there was a 31-percent advance. The weak year was 1965, after Lyndon Johnson beat Barry Goldwater and set out for the quagmire in Vietnam. Read “January Indicator Trifecta” Bottom line: This year began with all of the stock market omens providing bullish signals. If January’s hot and cold ETFs follow their trajectory in the historical manner of the January Barometer, the retail investor may already have a useful road map for taking long and short ETF positions as 2013 unfolds. Learn more about hot and cold ETFs with Wall Street Sector Selector’s Daily ETF Report Disclaimer: The content included herein is for educational and informational purposes only, and readers agree to Wall Street Sector Selector’s Disclaimer , Terms of Service , and Privacy Policy before accessing or using this or any other publication by Wall Street Sector Selector or Ridgeline Media Group, LLC.