Five Economic Reports Bring Good News
Posted on February 01, 2013 at 18:51 PM EST
Friday’s five economic reports brought plenty of reasons for investor optimism. Friday’s five economic reports were led by the highly-anticipated January non-farm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The BLS reported that non-farm payrolls increased by 157,000 new jobs in January, missing expectations for an increase of 185,000.  On the other hand, the BLS upwardly-revised December’s total to 196,000 (from 155,000) and revised November’s result from 161,000 to an enormous, 247,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9 percent from 7.8 percent.   Private Payrolls Rise a Modest 166k in January  From the report: T otal nonfarm payroll employment increased by 157,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 7.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Retail trade, construction, health care, and wholesale trade added jobs over the month.   Household Survey Data   The number of unemployed persons, at 12.3 million, was little changed in January.  The unemployment rate was 7.9 percent and has been at or near that level since September 2012. *   *   * Establishment Survey Data Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 157,000 in January.  In 2012, employment growth averaged 181,000 per month. In January, job gains occurred in retail trade, construction, health care, and wholesale trade, while employment edged down in transportation and warehousing. Friday brought Purchasing Managers Index reports from both of the companies which provide PMI data.  The Institute for Supply Management’s ISM Manufacturing Index for January was expected to remain unchanged from December’s reading of 50.7 percent.  Nevertheless, the ISM reported a nice jump to 53.1 percent.   ISM Manufacturing Business Activity Has Strong Advance From the report:   The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.  ”The PMI™ registered 53.1 percent, an increase of 2.9 percentage points from December’s seasonally adjusted reading of 50.2 percent, indicating expansion in manufacturing for the second consecutive month.  The New Orders Index registered 53.3 percent, an increase of 3.6 percent over December’s seasonally adjusted reading of 49.7 percent, indicating growth in new orders.  Manufacturing is starting out the year on a positive note, with all five of the PMI™’s component indexes — new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories — registering above 50 percent in January.” Markit Economics has been providing PMI data for a number of nations for many years, although it has only recently begun providing PMI data on the United States.  The Markit U.S. PMI for January was expected to increase to 55.5 from December’s 54.0.  The report provided another upside surprise with a reading of 55.8. From the report: The final Markit U.S. Manufacturing  Purchasing Managers’ Index™  (PMI™)  signalled a strong expansion of the U.S. manufacturing sector at the start of 2013.  Moreover, at 55.8, below the earlier flash estimate of 56.1 but higher than that recorded in December (54.0), the PMI signalled the fastest rate of growth in nine months. The December Construction Spending report from the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau was expected to reveal a 0.8 percent increase in construction spending.  The actual result edged out expectations with a reading of 0.9 percent. From the report: The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during December 2012 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $885.0 billion, 0.9 percent (±1.6%)* above the revised November estimate  of $876.9 billion.  The December figure is 7.8 percent (±1.8%) above the December 2011 estimate of $820.6 billion. Our fifth report is the January (Final) Thompson-Reuters / University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index .  Economists had been expecting a slight increase to 71.5 from December’s 71.3.  The report disclosed that despite widespread discomfort with the payroll tax increase, the final result beat expectations by rising to 73.8 from the downbeat preliminary reading of 71.3 and the December reading of 72.9. From the report: Confidence began to improve in the January survey following the uncertainty generated by the fiscal crisis.  So far the rise has been extremely small, as consumers were still much less optimistic in January than several months ago. Importantly, the payroll tax increase has had a significant impact on lower income households, as nearly the entire January gain was due to households with incomes above $75,000.  Concerns about disposable incomes have dominated consumer confidence for more than four years.  The key to rising consumer spending is whether gains in employment are able to offset higher payroll taxes.  Overall, consumer total expenditures adjusted for inflation will grow by 1.8% in 2013, just below the 1.9% in 2012. *   *   * The Sentiment Index was 73.8 in the January 2013 survey, up from 72.9 in December, but just below last January’s reading of 75.0.  The two components of the Index moved in opposite directions.  The Expectations Index posted a gain to 66.6 in January from 63.8 in December, while the Current Economic Conditions Index declined to 85.0 in  January from 87.0 in December. The major ETFs expected to respond to Friday’s economic reports are: iShares Dow Jones US Industrial ETF (NYSEARCA:IYJ)  +1.08% Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:XLP)  +0.81% Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY)  +0.58% SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA:XRT)  +0.09% iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (NYSEARCA:IWM)  +0.89%   Learn More About iShares ETFs Bottom line:  Friday’s five economic reports provided plenty of reasons for investor bullishness.  Although January’s headline number in the non-farm payrolls report, if it follows the pattern established in November and December we could see a huge upward revision in one or two months.  Sign up for Wall Street Sector Selector’s FREE Stock Market Timing Indicator!    Disclaimer: The content included herein is for educational and informational purposes only, and readers agree to Wall Street Sector Selector’s Disclaimer , Terms of Service , and Privacy Policy before accessing or using this or any other publication by Wall Street Sector Selector or Ridgeline Media Group, LLC.
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