V for are you serious this recovery might be almost totally normal?
Posted on February 01, 2013 at 12:03 PM EST
Sorry for the lack of detail but here is total private sector employment minus construction, both before and after the Feb revisions. What’s notable is how much tighter the V has gotten since we first looked at this. And, of course I think the notch at the very end will be straightened out with the next year’s benchmark. What this suggests is that after revisions the collapse and recovery of jobs outside of construction and government looks close normal. Sharp snap down followed by a sharp snap back. So through in some hand waving about a multiplier of 1 across all sectors and you can tell a story where special factors simply made construction and government missing in action. It also suggests that if those factors turn around the private non-construction recovery will continue apace and we will just be adding government and construction jobs on top. That makes crazy 400K plus job predictions not quite as crazy as they first seem.
Sorry for the lack of detail but here is total private sector employment minus construction, both before and after the Feb revisions. What’s notable is how much tighter the V has gotten since we first looked at this. And, of course I think the notch at the very end will be straightened out with the next year’s benchmark. What this suggests is that after revisions the collapse and recovery of jobs outside of construction and government looks close normal. Sharp snap down followed by a sharp snap back. So through in some hand waving about a multiplier of 1 across all sectors and you can tell a story where special factors simply made construction and government missing in action. It also suggests that if those factors turn around the private non-construction recovery will continue apace and we will just be adding government and construction jobs on top. That makes crazy 400K plus job predictions not quite as crazy as they first seem.
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