The Citigroup Surprise Index Chart: How Does the Data Compare to Expectations?
The Citigroup Surprise Index for the US measures macroeconomic data vs. expectations.  When the economic data is coming in much better than expected you’ll see a strongly positive number for the Surprise Index and a strongly negative number for much worse-than-expected data. Here is the Surprise Index for the US over the past three years:   US Citigroup Surprise Index last three years Courtesy of Bloomberg Click to enlarge   I’ve circled in red the readings in January in 2010 2011 and 2012 for a clean seasonal comparison. The current January reading is the same as January 2010 and ...
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