Gold is currently in a holding pattern at below $1,700 an ounce, but one thing is for sure: in spite of what some pundits are saying, it’s not time to sell yet. In an interview on CNBC, Marc Faber, also known as “Dr. Doom,” suggested that gold could correct 10% or more to as low as $1,550 or $1,600. (Source: “‘Dr. Doom’ Faber Sees Possible 10% Gold Correction,” Yahoo! Finance via CNBC, January 8, 2012.) While I’m not as negative, I do believe gold could retest support between $1,600 and $1,625 in the near term. Failure to hold could see a sub-$1,600 price.
In my view, gold continues to be a place to park some capital, and for this reason, I feel the metal will likely continue to hold above $1,500 after 11 straight up years.
For instance, if we assume the global economy will weaken, especially in the eurozone, the impact on global gross domestic product (GDP) growth would be negative. Stock values would fall, so you would need a safe haven to park your capital, which many of you know is in gold.
There’s been plenty of talk around here regarding whether the precious metal is heading for $2,000. In my view, the current global risk will support and drive gold higher.
The chart shows sideways trading around the 50-day moving average (MA) with weakening technical indicators, based on my technical analysis. I view downside moves as an opportunity to accumulate the precious metal, given the current macro situation.
Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com
I continue to like gold going forward, given the massive financial distress and recession in the eurozone and Europe. There’s also the tension in the Middle East.
China and India continue to be the world’s top buyers of the yellow metal, and this is expected to continue. China has also been buying mining companies around the world in an effort to increase its reserves. This is a reason why I like some of the smaller mining companies, especially those with a massive reserve of proven metals in the ground, waiting to develop their sites and needing a cash-rich partner to get the ore out of the ground.
For any gold investor, the question is whether to buy the physical bullion or gold mining stocks. For the average investor, I favor stocks over the higher risk of other options.
The mining sector continues to be an excellent place to make money. An investment strategy would be to buy a mixture of exploration-stage mining stocks along with small to large producers. Under this scenario, you can play both the potential aggressive gains of exploration stocks and the steady returns of the large gold producers.