Thoughts On A Crazy Year For Tech Stocks
Wow, 2012 flew by and as I start to ready my 2013 power rankings, I took some time to look at the past year for the stocks that I follow, trying to figure out what I got right and what I didn’t as well as a few other random thoughts..hopefully I can learn from this. After 3 [...]

Wow, 2012 flew by and as I start to ready my 2013 power rankings, I took some time to look at the past year for the stocks that I follow, trying to figure out what I got right and what I didn’t as well as a few other random thoughts..hopefully I can learn from this. After 3 solid years of tech stock (long and short) trading, 2012 was not my best one…

My Worst Call: Zynga (ZNGA)

Clearly my worst call of 2012. I get a few things wrong but I should have known better when dealing with Zynga. I got stuck on the fact that depending on Facebook (FB) was not a big issue. I still believe that. However, I failed to grasp how much competition Zynga would face and how many of its hit titles are not the types of games that you’ll play for long periods of time (compared to a game such as World of Warcraft from Activision (ATVI).

Runner Up: Not seeing AOL (AOL) incredible rise coming is unfortunate but I don’t think there was a way for me to see that one coming. The rise came almost entirely from the patent sale which had not been anticipated. Call me a strong skeptic that it can pull this off again…

My Best Call: Apple (AAPL)

You could absolutely say that this call does not look as great as it did a few months ago. That being said, I think that as much as I had been bullish on Apple (saying you’d be crazy not to own it, having it at #1 in my power rankings, among my 4 picks for 2012, etc), getting a 33% return is pretty decent!

Runner Up: Despite it not being in my power rankings (IPO happened in May), my timing on buying Facebook (FB) just below $20 turned out to be very good as I’m currently up over 40% after a few months…

You can see my tech stock rankings as well as their return between the date I published them (Jan 17th) and the year end:

My RankTickerActual RankReturn
1AAPL1332.59
2BIDU25-13.89
3GOOG219.52
4TRIP666.28
5ZNGA31-74.92
6AMZN844.93
7PCLN1232.64
8OPEN1424.71
9TZOO27-22.74
10DHX2010.74
11YHOO1623.37
12NFLX1033.63
13LNKD382.23
14GRPN32-76.44
15WBMD30-61.81
16MSFT225.84
17QNST28-28.21
18VCLK1719.15
19DMD939.7
20EBAY568.14
21RAX472.68
22IACI1812.6
23EXPE2115.63
24ADBE1133.29
25AOL1127.75
26Z1523.44
27MWW29-29.13
28RIMM26-18.14
29P24-8.29
30XOXO1911.51
31RST761.73
32NILE23-5.87

In terms of my long and short tech stocks, a few numbers:

Returns per year:

2010: 14.61%
2011: 82.89%
2012: -6.29%

#Trades In 2012: 32

#Winning Trades: 16
#Losing Trades: 16

I also took a look at how many times I traded stocks and my average return while trading them:

Stock#TradesAvg Return
AAPL66.51%
ADBE1-22%
AMZN22.98%
AOL5-23.20%
BIDU2-11.73%
DHX31.53%
DMD2-13.11%
EBAY216.62%
GOOG212.01%
IACI32.38%
LNKD412.67%
MSFT14.96%
MWW319.94%
NFLX125.73%
NILE75.89%
OPEN117.91%
P3-7.23%
PCLN2-12.13%
RAX1-13.19%
TRIP35.01%
TZOO3-2.33%
VCLK1-26.69%
XOXO2-9.57%
YHOO1-1.29%
Z1-30.58%
ZNGA2-22.58%

AOL certainly looks like a major part of the reason why I did poorly.. 5 trades with an average return of -23.70%.. wow! I did rather well on a few others, including MonsterWorldwide (MWW) and LinkedIn (LNKD).

I will also be making some changes in my trading this year, to be discussed when I’ll do my first pick tomorrow..! You can also stay tuned for my 2013 Power Rankings, to be published in the next few days (it actually takes a ton of time to write up) despite being a fairly short post for you to read.

In conclusion, I certainly hope that you had a good year trading in 2012, I had a very good one overall although not as great for tech stocks! Hopefully that part can revert in 2013:)

Thanks again for your continued support and comments, they are always very appreciated,

 

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