France Escapes Recession: International ETF Report
Posted on December 31, 2012 at 02:53 AM EST
Third quarter GDP expanded by 0.1 percent for France , saving the nation’s economy from recession. France received some semi-good news on December 28, when the  National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) reported  that the nation’s GDP went positive during the third quarter after negative 0.1 percent in the second quarter.  Third quarter GDP expanded by 0.1 percent.  Although INSEE had previously estimated third-quarter growth to reach 0.2 percent, the fact that the final figure for third-quarter GDP remained positive placed the French economy on better footing than the 17-nation, Eurozone economy.  On December 6, Eurostat reported  that during the third quarter of 2012, GDP contracted by 0.1 percent in the Eurozone, although GDP expanded by 0.1 percent in the broader, 27-nation European Union (EU27).   5 ETFs for Countries with Highest Employment Rates France is having more success coping with these troubled economic times than most people realize.  The election of Socialist President François Hollande – whose unsuccessful attempt to raise taxes to 75 percent on those with incomes above €1 million per year caused many wealthy citizens to consider leaving the country – reinforced skepticism about the ability of the nation to avoid recession.  The fact that French public spending was 56 percent of GDP in 2011 added to that concern.  Although Germany is seen as the only success story in the Eurozone economy, Germany’s Bundesbank recently issued  this disappointing report  concerning the nation’s economic growth estimate for next year: Against this background, the Bundesbank’s semi-annual forecast expects that, following a rise of 0.7% in the current year (0.9% after adjustment for calendar effects), real gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by only 0.4% (0.5% after calendar adjustment) next year.  In 2014 real GDP could go up by 1.9% if the euro-area banking and sovereign debt crisis does not escalate further and uncertainty among investors and consumers gradually subsides. On the other hand, INSEE expects French GDP to expand by only 0.1 percent in both the first and second quarters of 2013, after briefly contracting by 0.2 percent during the fourth quarter of 2012.  France’s escape from recession is obviously quite narrow.  Investors appear to be focused on the “glass half full” view of France as both the CAC 40 Stock Index and the iShares MSCI France Index ETF (NYSEARCA:EWQ) have been doing quite well.  Disappointment that the final figure for third-quarter GDP was only half the meager increase expected, motivated a selloff on December 28.  The chart below depicts the performance of the iShares MSCI France Index ETF during the past 180 days.(Chart courtesy of  Stockcharts.com .) Europe ETF Update:  iShares MSCI France Index ETF (NYSEARCA:EWQ):  -1.71%, This ETF is designed to track the performance of the MSCI France Index. The fund normally invests at least 95% of its assets in the securities of the underlying index and in depositary receipts representing securities in the MSCI France Index. It invests at least 80% of its assets in the securities of the MSCI France Index or in depositary receipts representing securities in the MSCI France Index, which consists of stocks traded primarily on the Paris Stock Exchange. Vanguard MSCI Europe ETF (NYSEARCA:VGK):  -1.32%, This ETF is designed to track the performance of the MSCI Europe Index.  The MSCI Europe Index tracks Europe stock market performance as reflected by the performance of top companies and sectors in developed Europe including France, Germany, Greece, The United Kingdom, Sweden, Norway, and Italy. iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF (NYSEARCA:EWG):  -1.42%, This ETF is designed to track the performance of the MSCI Germany Index.  The MSCI Germany Index tracks German stock market performance as reflected by the performance of top companies and sectors in Germany including Siemens, Bayer, SAP, and Deutsche Bank.  Learn More About iShares ETFs Does Sub-Saharan Africa Deserve a Slice of Your Portfolio? Bottom line:  Disappointment that third quarter GDP for France expanded by only 0.1 percent instead of the anticipated 0.2 percent caused a decline for both the French CAC 40 Index and the iShares MSCI France Index ETF (NYSEARCA:EWQ).  Despite the selloff, EWQ remains nearly one dollar above its 50-day moving average of $22.10.    Sign up for Wall Street Sector Selector’s FREE Stock Market Timing Indicator!    Disclaimer: The content included herein is for educational and informational purposes only, and readers agree to Wall Street Sector Selector’s Disclaimer , Terms of Service , and Privacy Policy before accessing or using this or any other publication by Wall Street Sector Selector or Ridgeline Media Group, LLC.
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