Is 2013 Going to be Worse than 2012? – Real Time Insight
Optimism and Pessimism are the flavors of choice in this RTI.  I wanted to show everybody the latest consensus forecasts for real GDP growth in major world economies.   I arranged them below.   Top performers are at the front of the pack.   China GDP 2012 7.7%, 2013 8.1%     (Better) India GDP 2012 5.6%, [...]

Optimism and Pessimism are the flavors of choice in this RTI.  I wanted to show everybody the latest consensus forecasts for real GDP growth in major world economies.  

I arranged them below.  

Top performers are at the front of the pack.

China GDP 2012 7.7%, 2013 8.1%     (Better)

India GDP 2012 5.6%, 2013 6.6%        (Better)

Russia GDP 2012 3.7%, 2013 3.6%         (Worse)

Australia GDP 2012 3.5%, 2013 2.8%      (Worse)

Mexico GDP 2012 3.9%, 2013 3.6%        (Worse)

U.S. GDP 2012   2.2%, 2013 1.9%       (Worse)

U.K. GDP 2012 -0.1%, 2013 1.3%      (Better)

Japan GDP 2012 1.8%, 2013 0.8%      (Worse)

Eurozone GDP 2012 -0.5%, 2013 0.0%   (Worse)

The main point of this exercise is to show how much pessimism there is on the world economy in 2013. Outside of better outlooks for China and India, everything else looks grim. This doesn’t seem justified to me.  I am particularly dismayed by the U.S. call.

Do you agree?  Is 2013 going to be a worse year for the world economy than 2012?

Let us know your reasoning.  Why the pessimism or optimism?

 
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