Wall St Week Ahead: "Cliff" worries may drive tax selling – RSI stands pat and holds tight stops
Posted on December 09, 2012 at 19:31 PM EST

A holiday decoration is seen over Wall St. sign outside the New York Stock Exchange, November 27, 2012. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidInvestors typically sell stocks to cut their losses at year end. But worries about the "fiscal cliff" - and the possibility of higher taxes in 2013 - may act as the greatest incentive to sell both winners and losers by December 31.

The $600 billion of automatic tax increases and spending cuts scheduled for the beginning of next year includes higher rates for capital gains, making tax-related selling even more appealing than usual.

Tax-related selling may be behind the weaker trend in the shares of market leader Apple, analysts said. The stock is down 20 percent for the quarter, but it's still up nearly 32 percent for the year.

Even with stocks' recent declines, the three major U.S. stock indexes are still up for the year. The Dow Jones industrial average is up 7.7 percent for 2012 so far, while the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index is up 12.8 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index is up 14.3 percent for the year to date. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)

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I believe the writing is on the wall  …  Higher taxes are enviable and that will be difficult for Wall Street. The headlines about the fiscal cliff are just part of the story. The stock market could be poised for a fall, maybe sharp and deep. Anyhow these are my personal opinions. I’m not selling everything, but I’m holding tight stops. I hope you do the same too.

As for RSI, it is still sticking with its calls from last week. The buy recommendations are:

  • iShares MSCI Taiwan Index Fund (EWT)
  • iShares MSCI Philippines Investable Market Index Fund (EPHE)
  • iShares MSCI Switzerland Index Fund (EWL)

These three are still strong performers. I really like them, but I’m hesitant to buy in these uncertain times.

I hope you have had a good weekend. Today my wife and I drove through harsh, wintery driving conditions. When we got home we found that 5” of show had fallen with more to fall.

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