Probabilities For The Market Going Forward!
Saturday, November 10, 10:45 a.m. The Dow plunged 433 points, or 3.3%, in the two days after the election. The timing makes it ‘obvious’ to many pundits that it’s due to President Obama being re-elected. But he was already president prior to the election, and the stock market has been in a strong bull market [...]

Saturday, November 10, 10:45 a.m.

The Dow plunged 433 points, or 3.3%, in the two days after the election. The timing makes it ‘obvious’ to many pundits that it’s due to President Obama being re-elected.

But he was already president prior to the election, and the stock market has been in a strong bull market that started March 10, 2009, less than two months after he was inaugurated. And after a 10% March to June correction this year, the market continued to rally strongly off the June low even as the polls showed him as likely to win re-election.

So it’s doubtful the election is the catalyst for the correction.

Besides which, the correction is not something new this week. It’s been underway since mid-September, almost two months ago. In fact, the correction was already enough to break the trend-line support of the rally off the June low a month ago.

111012a

The Dow gained 1,492 points from its June low to its September high, and has now given back 800 points since that September high.

So what is the market’s problem? Click here to read the rest of the article and see additional charts Probabilities For Market Going Forward! 

Yesterday in the U.S. Market.

After 5 triple-digit daily closes by the Dow over the previous 6 days, two up and three down, it was a relatively quiet day Friday, with the Dow trading between being up 80 points, and down 70 points, and closing down just 4 points, not measurable as a percentage.

Trading volume was again somewhat elevated from average levels during the rally, with 0.74 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

The Dow closed down 4 points, as noted not measurable as a percentage. The S&P 500 closed up 0.2% at 1,379. The NYSE Composite closed basically flat, up 2 points. The Nasdaq closed up 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.4%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.2%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.7%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 0.7%.

Gold closed down $1 an ounce at $1,731.

Oil closed up $.98 a barrel to $86.07 a barrel.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.2%.

The U.S. Treasury bond etf TLT closed up 0.1%.

Yesterday in European Markets.

European markets closed mixed. The London FTSE closed down 0.1%. The German DAX closed down 0.6%. France’s CAC closed up 0.5%. Italy closed down 0.1%. Russia closed down 0.3%. Spain closed up 0.2%. Greece closed up 0.9%.

Global markets for the week.

Another very negative week. It was the 4th triple-digit down week for the Dow out of the last 6 weeks.

This is the way it’s gone since August 1:

Month of August was positive but Dow up a total of only 82 points (0.6%) for the entire month.

Since mid-September:

Week ending 9/28:  -142 points

Week ending 10/5:  +173 points

Week ending 10/12: –281 points

Week ending 10/19:  +14 points

Week ending 10/26: –236 points

Week ending 11/2: +14 points

Week ending 11/9: –277 points.


THIS WEEK (November 9)
DJIA12815- 2.1%
S&P 5001379- 2.5%
NYSE8053- 2.2%
NASDAQ2904- 2.6%
NASD 1002584- 2.7%
Russ 2000795- 2.4%
DJTransprts5018- 1.8%
DJ Utilities448- 4.6%
XOI Oils1,201- 2.0%
Gold bull.1,731+ 3.2%
GoldStcks181+ 1.2%
Canada12196- 1.5%
London5769- 1.7%
Germany7163- 2.7%
France3423- 2.0%
Hong Kong21384- 3.3%
Japan8757- 3.3%
Australia4482- 0.1%
S. Korea1904- 0.7%
India18683- 0.4%
Indonesia4333- 0.1%
Brazil57357- 1.8%
Mexico40677- 2.6%
China2166- 2.3%
LAST WEEK (November 2)
DJIA13093- 0.1%
S&P 5001414+ 0.2%
NYSE8234+ 0.5%
NASDAQ2982- 0.2%
NASD 1002656- 0.3%
Russ 2000814+ 0.1%
DJTransprts5110+ 1.2%
DJ Utilities470- 1.2%
XOI Oils1,225- 0.2%
Gold bull.1,677- 2.0%
GoldStcks179- 2.1%
Canada12380+ 0.7%
London5868+ 1.1%
Germany7363+ 1.8%
France3492+ 1.7%
Hong Kong22111+ 2.6%
Japan9051+ 1.3%
Australia4483- 0.3%
S. Korea1918+ 1.4%
India18755+ 0.7%
Indonesia4338- 0.1%
Brazil58382+ 1.9%
Mexico41761- 0.2%
China2217+ 2.5%
PREVIOUS WEEK (October 26)
DJIA13107- 1.8%
S&P 5001411- 1.5%
NYSE8190- 1.6%
NASDAQ2987- 0.6%
NASD 1002665- 0.5%
Russ 2000813- 0.9%
DJTransprts5052- 0.6%
DJ Utilities475- 1.7%
XOI Oils1,227- 2.0%
Gold bull.1,711- 0.6%
GoldStcks183- 1.7%
Canada12300- 0.9%
London5806- 1.5%
Germany7231- 2.0%
France3435- 2.0%
Hong Kong21545- 0.1%
Japan8933- 0.8%
Australia4496- 2.1%
S. Korea1891- 2.7%
India18625- 0.3%
Indonesia4339+ 0.2%
Brazil57276- 2.8%
Mexico41836- 1.3%
China2163- 2.9%

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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will be an average week for potential market-moving economic reports, including the Producer Price Index, Retail Sales, the Fed’s Phila Fed Index, Industrial Production, etc. To see the full list click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

Subscribers to Street Smart Report: In addition to the charts and recommendations in the premium content area of today’s blog, there is an in-depth U.S. market update from Wednesday evening in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website

I’ll be back with the next regular blog post on Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.

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