What the Eventual Dismantling of the Eurozone Will Cost the U.S.
Posted on October 26, 2012 at 01:47 AM EDT
There is no doubt now: the U.S. economy is being highly affected by the global economic slowdown. If you have been listening to financial gurus and the mainstream media saying, “We’ll be alright, we can weather the storm,” take their word at your own risk. To put things into perspective, we need to know how critical the collapse of the eurozone will be to the U.S. economy, or even just the exit of one country that shares the euro from the eurozone. A recent study by Bertelsmann Stiftung showed that if Greece exits the eurozone , 42 of the top economies in the global economy will have to absorb a loss of 674 billion euros (close to US$1.0 trillion) until 2020. (Source: “Greece’s Withdrawal from the Eurozone Could Cause Global Economic Analysis,” Bertelsmann Stiftung, October 17, 2012.) If more countries like Spain, Portugal, and Italy exit the eurozone, the losses will be in the trillions (in U.S. dollars) and will create havoc in the global economy. According to this study, if these three countries do exit the eurozone, the U.S. economy will be exposed to a loss of 2.8 trillion euros through to 2020. This study should be an eye-opener to governments and central banks in the eurozone and the U.S. economy. Scrambling to print more money can only go so far. Maybe it’s about time those in charge come up with a different plan to help the troubled eurozone. Nothing seems to be changing in the eurozone: Spain continues to play the same game that Ireland played when it needed its bailout; Greece has failed to implement more austerity measures ; and Italy says it has no problem. The U.S. economy had a chance at economic growth after the worst recession since the Great Depression. That chance has gone down the drain now because of the eurozone crisis. Eventually, I believe we will see the crisis in the eurozone spread from one country to another in rotation. This news should not shock my readers, as I started warning about recessions happening in the eurozone back in January of 2012, well ahead of most economists. The path of the European Central Bank (ECB) for the eurozone crisis will be like this: 1) Bail out a eurozone country in economic trouble; 2) demand that country implement austerity measures to first get the bailout money; 3) move to the next eurozone country in trouble and repeat first two steps; 4) go back to the first bailed-out country after seeing that austerity measures do not work and give them more money; 5) repeat the process for each troubled country; 6) stop the process once Germany says that’s enough or ... Read More