Australian Dollar Outlook - 16/10/2012
Bell FX Currency Outlook: The AUD is slightly fimer today, locally the market will pay close attension to the release of the RBA minutes today at 11.30am.
(IBTimes) -- 10/15/2012 --

Bell FX Currency Outlook: The AUD is slightly fimer today, locally the market will pay close attension to the release of the RBA minutes today at 11.30am.

Australia: The Australian dollar is higher this morning as improved US data gives sentiment a lift overnight. The AUD traded back toward 1.0260 against a weaker US dollar; up from yesterday's close of 1.0230.

A strong US Retail Sales read drove a rally in risk appetite with equity markets and risk currencies benefiting. China's September CPI inflation fell to 1.9% y/y broadly in line with market expectations, suggesting the spike in food prices seen in August was largely due to seasonal effects.

PPI also declined in September by 3.6%y/y compared with -3.5% seen in August - driven mainly by weaker prices in mining and the raw materials sector.

The headline inflation figure suggests there is still room for the PBOC to ease monetary policy further. Today locally the October RBA board meeting minutes will be released at 11:30am. The minutes will be watched closely markets for hints of further rate moves and monetary policy going forward.

Given the decision to cut to interest rates a quarter of a percentage point to 3.25%, a dovish tone is expected. Markets are now pricing in an 83% chance of a further 25bps easing by the RBA in November.

Majors: Global equity markets were firmer overnight as better than expected US Retail Sales and a positive earnings surprise from Citigroup buoyed markets. US Retail Sales rose by a solid 1.1%, in September with August sales upwardly revised to 1.2%.

A recent drop in jobless numbers and firming house prices are leading to gains in confidence, indicating that household spending has helped bolster economic growth for the US in the last quarter. Both the DJIA and S&P 500 ended the session up 0.7% to 13,420 and 1,440. European equities were also higher with the FTSE ending 0.2% higher at 5,806 and the German DAX ending up 0.4% at 7,261.

A choppy night of trade also saw oil prices end higher with Brent closing 1.5% higher at USD 115.7 per barrel, while WTI futures ended unchanged at USD 91.7 per barrel. Better than expected US data saw gold prices fall by 1.0% to USD 1738 per ounce. Tonight will see Core CPI figures for the US released with German economic sentiment and EU Trade Balance.
Economic Calendar
16 OCT AU Reserve Bank Minutes
UK CPI
EU Euro-zone Trade Balance
US CPI
US NAHB Housing Market Index

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