New York area manufacturing was reported poor in September, with the Empire State Manufacturing Survey showing its General Business Conditions Index down to negative 10.4. Economists see improvement for August, with the consensus expectation set at negative 3.0. Some of the more recent data has indicated stabilization, especially the ISM Manufacturing Index, which marked 51.5% for September. However, we expressed healthy skepticism of the message offered by ISM when it was reported last week. The New York area measure might offer a sort of test of truth here.
Business Trade data will be reported at 10:00 AM, measuring the sales and inventories of manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers. Inventories increased by 0.8% in July, as sales gained by 0.9%, so the inventory-to-sales ratio improved to 1.28, from 1.29 the month before (on an adjusted basis). Economists’ projections are only available for inventories, and those are seen rising by 0.5% in August. The data is old and shouldn’t prove important, except in the case of a significant surprise.
Federal Reserve representatives William Dudley, Jeffrey Lacker and James Bullard are addressing three separate audiences Monday. Overseas, Finance ministers from Asia and Europe are meeting in Bangkok. China will publish monthly data on consumer and producer prices. Portugal issues its draft budget for 2013, which should show a smothering austerity program.
The United Nations Security Council begins discussion on the Middle East.
The corporate wire has Citigroup (NYSE: C) on the marquee, with reports also expected from Gannett (NYSE: GCI), Packaging Corp. of America (NYSE: PKG), WD-40 (Nasdaq: WDFC), Art’s Way Manufacturing (Nasdaq: ARTW), Brown & Brown (NYSE: BRO), Educational Development (Nasdaq: EDUC), ICU Medical (Nasdaq: ICUI), Joe’s Jeans (Nasdaq: JOEZ), Premier Exhibitions (Nasdaq: PRXI) and Uranium Energy (NYSE: UEC).
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