The Domino Effect That Will End this Stock Market Rally
Posted on March 30, 2012 at 10:14 AM EDT
Readers of Profit Confidential have made their voices heard on the topic of rapid inflation . In our recent survey, over 2,000 of our readers said they believe we are experiencing rapid inflation closer to 10%, while the official government Consumer Price Index (CPI) states that inflation is at 2.9%. On these pages, I have been detailing the input cost (Cost of Goods) for manufacturers—higher commodity prices—from many parts of the world. In the next month, the first-quarter earnings reports start coming out and major U.S. companies will give us a good idea of how 2012 will shape up in terms of economic growth and rapid inflation. But some companies have already started crying the blues… On its conference call this week, Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ/SHLD) cited a significant increase in commodity costs, particularly cotton, as one of the reasons for its margin decline. Many restaurant chains across the nation have been discussing their biggest struggle: raising prices for food on their menus…weighing high commodity prices—like the rise in the price of beef—against the fragile economic recovery. Beef prices have climbed 30% over the last two years, and many restaurant chains do not believe the rise in commodity prices—rapid inflation—will subside anytime soon. Some are getting creative; ensuring they serve their steaks with the bone, so customers feel as though they are getting more meat on their plates for that higher price. ConAgra Foods, Inc. (NYSE/CAG), a global food maker of such products as “Chef Boyardee” and “Banquet” frozen meals, just released its fourth-quarter numbers, which slightly exceeded expectations—but the company lowered its expectations for the current quarter and sees a difficult 2012, also due to commodity prices . ConAgra is experiencing rapid inflation in commodity prices from grain to meat to fuel. ConAgra decided to raise prices on consumers, but the higher prices hurt demand and its sales fell. One of the largest food companies in the world is General Mills, Inc. (NYSE/GIS). It recently reported reduced quarterly numbers, which met Wall Street’s lowered expectations. The company says it will meet its reduced 2012 forecast; it looks to increase sales as higher commodity prices eat into margins. It is strange, dear reader, that the Federal Reserve has been saying for some time now that inflation is moderate and that recent rises in commodity prices are only temporary in nature. This is in contrast to what readers from Profit Confidential are experiencing in their daily lives, along with the above evidence. I’d like to add the comments from Kendall Powell, CEO of General Mills, from March 2012’s conference call (Powell has been with General Mills since 1979 and has held multiple management positions in the various …
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