While most other economists tell us otherwise, I’ve been writing this year about how the numbers so far do not point to a U.S. economic recovery , but rather to a continued economic slowdown, with the threat of recession. I’ve been focused on the average damaged consumer, who has lost value in his/her home and has been restrained by no income growth…if he/she is lucky enough to have a job. With over 47 million Americans on food stamps, I’m at a loss as to understanding how consumer spending can grow with this backdrop. Interestingly enough, a major new study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago has come to the same conclusion. The study points to a survey about the habits of consumer spending over the next two years, and the results are not encouraging for U.S. economic recovery . The study points to the fact that 2008-09 saw the worst year-over-year decline in consumer spending in the U.S. since—that is 65 years ago. Worse, all subcomponents of consumer spending declined, including durable goods like cars, furniture and other items a consumer purchases for many years, and even food. While the researchers are quick to point out that more people may have eaten at home, which explains lower food consumption, I’m certain that some of that decline in food consumption can be explained by the dramatic rise in food stamp usage. The report goes on to note that after 2009 to today, the recovery in consumer spending has been uncharacteristically weak. While most recessions needed usually one year for consumer spending to return to previous highs, this one took three years! The researchers noted that the steep decline in income growth bears a large part of the blame (the balance borne by the drop in home prices). Not only was the fall in income growth the worst on record, but also incomes have still not recovered from pre-recession levels! (Also see: Personal Income Growth in America Now Only a Memory .) How can we expect consumer spending to increase against this economic backdrop? The economic numbers released to date, when analyzed by serious economists, point to the same forecasts I have been making: the U.S. will experience low growth in both personal income and consumer spending over the next two years. So while some are saying the U.S. economic recovery is in place, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago itself is telling a different story. Watch out for that rise in equities this year. It’s looking more and more like a bear trap. Michael’s Personal Notes : What the world’s largest retailer and the world’s largest food maker are telling us about the economy… Yesterday, Wal-Mart …