Who We Can Thank for Dow Jones 13,000
Posted on February 22, 2012 at 10:33 AM EST
Investors are excited about the fact that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has touched 13,000—a four-year high—as it rides the bear market rally higher. Let’s take a step back, dear reader, and explore the reasons to justify this current stock market rally and growing bullish investor sentiment. Let’s see why investors (outside of my family of Profit Confidential readers) believe the market has been rising: If we take the last few recessions before this one, gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the U.S. regularly exceeded 4.0% coming out of a recession, leading to a sustained stock market rally. Let’s see; 2009’s U.S. GDP was minus 2.4%, 2010 saw GDP at positive 3.0%, and 2011 saw GDP growth of only 1.7%. U.S GDP is going the wrong way coming out of this recession. Hence, while investors might think the economy is recovering, it’s not. Maybe investors think that income growth is propelling this market rally. Real income growth provides the consumer with real purchasing power. Unfortunately, over the last four years, real income growth has fallen (see “Michael’s Personal Notes” below). Okay, so it must be strong earnings growth then that is exciting investors about this stock market rally. Yes, many large corporations had a great 2011. However, in the final quarter of 2011, corporations reported their lowest earnings growth since 2008 and many are pulling back on their outlook for 2012. Well, if it’s none of the above, it must be strong economic growth worldwide that everyone can thank for this market rally. Actually, my readers are fully aware that Europe is in a recession that has caused China and India to slow, which in turn will negatively affect growth in the U.S. (See: How the Massive Global Economic Slowdown Will Affect Us .) Well, what the devil is propelling this market rally then, if it’s not GDP growth, earnings growth, income growth, or global economic growth? What is the origin of this growing bullish investor sentiment? The answer is in the balance sheets of the major central banks around the world. They are all printing money, which has propelled this stock market rally . In the last three years, the Fed here in the U.S. has increased its balance sheet (printed money) from assets just under $1.0 trillion, to just shy of $3.0 trillion today (source: Federal Reserve). In its last meeting, the Fed hinted that more quantitative easing could be on its way. Let the market rally! The Bank of Japan’s debt has almost reached a quadrillion yen! Wrap your head around that number, dear reader—I can’t! In U.S. dollar terms, since three years ago, the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet has gone from …