Will Best October in Years Be Followed by Worst November?
Saturday, November 26. 10:00 a.m. With only three more trading days in November it’s almost a sure thing the month will close out as one of the worst Novembers in decades. It’s been a brutal month. About the only good thing you can say about it is that so far anyway the decline in November [...]

Saturday, November 26. 10:00 a.m.

With only three more trading days in November it’s almost a sure thing the month will close out as one of the worst Novembers in decades. It’s been a brutal month.

About the only good thing you can say about it is that so far anyway the decline in November has not been as big as the rally in October.

The Dow gained 1,576 points, or 14.8%, from October 3 to October 28. It has lost ‘only’ 1,000 points, or 8.2%, from October 28 to yesterday’s close.

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However, the decline in November has been accompanied by potentially longer lasting bad news than the relief rally in October received in good news.

The October rally was in relief that eurozone countries had finally gotten serious and hammered out a substantial rescue plan that would at least kick the crisis down the road to 2013.

The plunge in November has been on the real fear that even that plan cannot be implemented, and a serious global recession may in unavoidable. That fear is supported by the fact that while action has been delayed, the previous lesser crisis that had Greece as its focus point, has worsened significantly, with the much larger economy of Italy now in the crosshairs, and Spain potentially wandering into the target area. 

On the technical analysis side, on Thursday I showed you the short-term oversold condition of the U.S. and European markets and the potential for at least a bounce off the oversold condition.

Since European markets are closer to the core of the crisis and at most risk, it might be wise to focus on them.

And if so, can the bulls get any encouragement from the action in European markets over the last two days?

On Thursday, the German DAX, London FTSE, and France’s CAC were up close to 2% for most of the day, before giving back the gains.

And yesterday, they rallied again and hung onto the gains.

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But next week will be important, with bond auctions due in several key eurozone countries including Italy, and a heavy schedule of economic reports coming out in the U.S. (if markets can take their eyes off Europe even long enough to notice them).

At least there’s good news this morning on the sports side, with the report that NBA owners and players have reached an agreement that will allow a shortened season to begin on Christmas Day. Go Magic!

To read my weekend newspaper column ‘Here’s Something Investors Can Be Thankful For!’ click here!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report: In addition to the charts and updates in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog this morning, there is an in-depth ‘U.S. Markets’ update from Wednesday in the subscribers’ area of the Street Smart Report website. And the new issue of the newsletter will be out on Wednesday. Meanwhile, please stay tuned to the hotline.

Yesterday in the U.S. Market.

A fractionally negative holiday-shortened half-day of trading to end an ugly week.

The Dow closed down 25 points, 0.2%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.3%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.3%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.7%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.7%. The Russell 2000 closed down 1.2%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed down 0.7%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed up 0.5%.

Gold closed down $10 an ounce at $1,680 an ounce.

Oil closed up $0.60 a barrel at $96.76.

The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed up 0.6%.

The U.S. Treasury bond etf TLT closed down 1.5%.

Yesterday in European Markets.

European markets closed up for a change yesterday. The London FTSE closed up 0.7%. The German DAX closed up 1.2%. And France’s CAC closed up 1.2%.

Global markets for the week.

Another ugly week, all about Europe fears globally.


THIS WEEK (November 25)
DJIA11231- 4.8%
S&P 5001158- 4.7%
NYSE6898- 5.3%
NASDAQ2441- 5.1%
NASD 1002150- 4.6%
Russ 2000666- 7.4%
DJTransprts4533- 6.4%
DJ Utilities426- 3.6%
XOI Oils1,114- 6.2%
Gold bull.1,680- 2.5%
GoldStcks187- 4.3%
Canada11462- 3.6%
London5164- 3.7%
Germany5492- 5.3%
France2856- 4.7%
Hong Kong17689- 4.3%
Japan8160- 2.6%
Australia4057- 4.4%
S. Korea1776- 3.4%
India15695- 4.1%
Indonesia3637- 3.1%
Brazil54894- 3.2%
Mexico34573- 4.7%
China2493- 1.5%
LAST WEEK (November 18)
DJIA11796- 2.9%
S&P 5001215- 3.8%
NYSE7282- 3.9%
NASDAQ2572- 4.0%
NASD 1002253- 4.3%
Russ 2000719- 3.4%
DJTransprts4841- 2.7%
DJ Utilities442- 2.4%
XOI Oils1,188- 5.0%
Gold bull.1,723- 3.7%
GoldStcks196- 7.7%
Canada11892- 3.1%
London5362- 3.3%
Germany5800- 4.2%
France2997- 4.8%
Hong Kong18491- 3.4%
Japan8374- 1.6%
Australia4246- 2.6%
S. Korea1839- 1.3%
India16371- 4.8%
Indonesia3754- 0.6%
Brazil55731- 3.1%
Mexico36284- 3.4%
China2531- 2.6%
PREVIOUS WEEK (November 11)
DJIA12153+ 1.4%
S&P 5001263+ 0.8%
NYSE7576+ 0.3%
NASDAQ2678- 0.3%
NASD 1002355- 0.1%
Russ 2000744- 0.2%
DJTransprts4977+ 1.3%
DJ Utilities453+ 0.4%
XOI Oils1,251+ 0.7%
Gold bull.1,789+ 1.9%
GoldStcks212+ 1.7%
Canada12276- 1.1%
London5545+ 0.3%
Germany6057+ 1.5%
France3149+ 0.8%
Hong Kong19137- 3.6%
Japan8514- 3.3%
Australia4358+ 0.4%
S. Korea1863- 3.3%
India17192- 2.1%
Indonesia3778- 0.1%
Brazil58546- 0.2%
Mexico37555+ 2.4%
China2598- 1.9%

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Next week’s Economic Reports:

Next week will be a very big week for potential market-moving economic reports, including New Home Sales, the Home Prices Index, the ISM Mfg Index, and on Friday The Big One!, the Labor Department’s employment report for November. To see the full schedule of the week’s reports click here, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.

To read my weekend newspaper column ‘Here’s Something Investors Can Be Thankful For!’ click here!

Subscribers to Street Smart Report: In addition to the charts and updates in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog this morning, there is an in-depth ‘U.S. Markets’ update from Wednesday in the subscribers’ area of the Street Smart Report website. And the new issue of the newsletter will be out on Wednesday. Meanwhile, please stay tuned to the hotline.

I’ll be back with the next regular blog post on Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m. Have a great weekend!

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