The week ahead is chock full of housing data, with several reports due measuring the mood of homebuilders, new home construction starts, real estate prices and existing home sales. Of course, the European debt crisis and the United States’ debt ceiling debacle will overwhelm the wire. Still, we’ll receive data on economic leading indicators, regional manufacturing activity, the weekly consumer take and a slew of earnings reports as EPS season kicks into high gear.
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Week Ahead - Busy Housing and EPS Schedule
You will surely enjoy your coffee Monday morning, as the two economic reports scheduled for release probably will dip well. Before the bell rings, we’ll receive the latest Treasury International Capital (TIC) data. Given that U.S. Treasury Securities could soon suffer a sharp discount, we doubt there’s been active interest. However, this report covers the month of May, when people still thought some sense existed in the U.S. Congress. April’s report showed a net improvement in foreign investment in long-term U.S. securities, to net inflow of $30.6 billion.
Follow up that dough-nut with a bagel, when the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports its Housing Market Index at 10:00 AM EDT. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is a measure of builder confidence, and it has been quite lacking in that for some time now. Last month’s report showed the HMI dropped 3 points in June to a mark of 13, a level it hadn’t seen since September of 2010. By the way, the breakpoint between a positive view and negative is 50, so you get the point.
Overseas, markets will be closed in Japan. German and Russian bankers are meeting, I suppose so the Russians can learn more about the vulnerabilities of Europe.
More real estate data reaches wire Tuesday, as the Housing Starts tally is reported for June at 8:30 AM ET. Starts measure the beginning of construction, and last month’s report marked a 3.5% increase in May Starts, to an annual pace of 560K. Permits authorized for construction in May jumped 8.7% over April, to an annual rate of 612K. Permits were also up against the prior year rate of 582K.
Last week’s same-store sales data covered the week ending July 9. The holiday inclusive period saw same-store sales gain, but just 0.4% against the immediately preceding period. On a year-to-year basis, sales rose 5.5%; Redbook had yearly sales up 5.4% for the same period. The latest data will be available before the bell on Tuesday.
The House of Representatives is expected to vote on some form of cut to the budget deficit, the raising of the debt ceiling and an amendment to the Constitution that requires a balanced federal budget. The GOP-led extreme measures will not likely get through Congress, but perhaps act as progressive step towards agreement.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is due to finalize additional financial reform regulations. Overseas, a task force assigned by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission issues a report and briefs the public on the Japanese nuclear crisis.
The corporate schedule has an FDA panel review of new diabetes drug applications by Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) and AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN). News Corp. (NYSE: NWS, Nasdaq: NWSA) execs testify before the U.K. Parliament with regard to their subsidiary’s alleged phone hacking. A hearing is scheduled over Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) settlement with authors on e-books. Skullcandy, a headphone maker, is expected to price its IPO within a range of $17 to $19 a share.
The marquee report for the day is without question the Existing Home Sales Report for June, due at 10:00 AM ET. Economists are looking for the annual pace of sales to reach 4.9 million, which would mark increase from May’s 4.81 million rate. We should start to see important year-over-year housing sales growth through the second half of the year.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) precedes this data with the Weekly Applications Survey. The MBA’s measure of mortgage application flow showed a likely holiday impacted decline last week, as the Market Composite Index fell 5.1%, despite mortgage rate improvement.
At 10:30 AM ET, look for the EIA’s Petroleum Status Report. Last week’s data covering the period ending July 8 showed a 3.1 million barrel decrease in oil inventory and a 0.8 million decrease in total motor gasoline stores. Crude oil stocks remain above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year, while gasoline inventory is within the lower range for the season.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) issues its World Trade Report Wednesday.
The Los Angeles Dodgers will request permission of a bankruptcy court to continue borrowing on hedge fund manager Highbridge Principal’s loan.
Thursday will certainly be the busiest day of the week, with six economic reports scheduled. The only premarket data will arrive from the Department of Labor. Weekly Jobless Claims, due at 8:30, are seen rising to 415K, from 405K reported last week. We discussed the possibility that last week’s economic data were depressed by the lackadaisical days that follow holiday weekends.
After the bell, at 9:45 AM EDT, look for Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index. The weekly measure improved a bit last period, but remained sour at -43.9, from negative 45.5 the week before. Both domestic and international uncertainty should keep consumers cautious.
The Philadelphia Fed Survey follows last week’s disappointing news from New York State. Manufacturing in the Empire State kept in the negative, marking contraction for the sector. Economists are looking for the Philadelphia metric to move into positive territory, to 5.0, from negative 7.7 last month. This time at least the range includes some negative forecasts, with economists varying in their index forecasts from -4.8 to 10.0, based on Bloomberg’s tally.
Also at 10:00 AM ET, look for the latest Leading Indicators Index from the Conference Board. Economists are forecasting a 0.3% increase for June’s take, which would compare to the 0.8% rebound in May (following April’s 0.4% decline). I’m not as confident as the economists surveyed, looking for somewhere around no change in the LEI.
Also at 10:00 AM ET, see the FHFA House Price Index data for May. April’s data showed a 0.8% month-over-month price increase, while prices remained lower, down 5.7% against the prior year. As this data nears June, it will begin to better match and I posit even surpass prior year home pricing (seen more so in S&P Case Shiller and Existing Home Sales data).
At 10:30 AM ET, catch the EIA’s Natural Gas Inventory data. Last week’s report covering the period ending July 8 showed an 84 Bcf increase in natural gas inventory. Stores were 218 Bcf less than last year, and 52 Bcf below the five-year average.
Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke testifies with other officials before a Senate panel on financial regulatory reform one year post. Meanwhile, the Consumer Financial Protection Board gets its full regulatory powers. Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans holds a news conference.
Eurozone leaders are scheduled to meet to discuss the regional debt and economic crisis.
The NFL and players’ union may have an agreement ratified Thursday at their annual meeting, just in time for the Hall of Fame Game.
An FDA committee reviews menthol cigarettes, and another FDA panel will consider Centocor’s Remicade treatment for pediatric colitis.
The EU’s Economic Council’s budget meeting convenes.
In the U.S., monthly state jobs data are reported.
Lehman Brothers and a past partner meet in court to determine whether 19 real estate projects will be allowed to come out of bankruptcy. Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW) offers its summer business review.
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