This week is a back-end loaded one in terms of economic reports and earnings releases. However the political rhetoric will get an early go. With no economic data scheduled for release Monday, all eyes will be on Capitol Hill starting Sunday evening when the President flies back to the White House from Camp David to speak with Congressional leaders from both parties.
Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.
Overseas, European Union finance ministers will meet to review the Greek debt situation, perhaps weigh “other” options. In global affairs, “The Quartet” of Mideast-peace brokers will get together, perhaps for a hummus and Heineken, because Lord knows they’ve not gotten much done over the last… say forever.
States’ side, the SEC and Public Company Accounting Oversight Board convenes with the Chinese Ministry of Finance and Securities Regulatory Commission, or is it the Hall of Justice meets with the Legion of Doom? In any event, American and Chinese regulators will be attempting to find some common ground, futile as it may seem.
The Dallas Federal Reserve kicks off its Global Economic Forum in what I hear is lovely San Antonio.
The corporate wire has Chevron (NYSE: CVX), a notorious Friday EPS reporter, giving its second quarter update. I suppose it will be good news reported so front and center.
The news will start early from Asia, where the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will announce monetary policy. Just a few days after the momentus rate hike by the ECB, the BOJ is seen holding steady like its counterpart in England. The BOJ is likely to lower its economic growth forecast as well, given developments related to the historic earthquake that shook the nation earlier this year.
Look for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index to be reported before the bell on Tuesday. My old Dean, Bill Dunkelberg, is the voice of the NFIB and will likely be reporting about the same concerns small business owners have voiced for over two years now. One good note on a relative basis: small businesses did most of the hiring in June according to ADP. The story here has been that tax break incentives to inspire hiring aren’t good enough; small businessmen need revenues to support the hiring of the next employee. The index slipped to 90.0 in May.
International Trade data will be reported for the month of May at 8:30 AM ET. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the trade gap narrowed in May to $42.7 billion, versus April’s $43.7 billion gap.
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) reports on weekly same-store sales in Tuesday’s premarket. Last week’s report showed sales increased 1.5% week-to-week in the period ending July 2. Sales were up 3.5% against the prior year period, according to the ICSC.
At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its June meeting, which could prove interesting. The meeting was the one that might have ushered in QE3, but did not. It’ll be interesting to see how much support there was for the stoppage of quantitative easing, especially given the latest labor data. Many, including yours truly, think there may be a movement to continue the extraordinary measures in the near future.
The Senate Banking Committee will be hearing testimony regarding investor protections.
On the corporate front, look for analyst and/or shareholder meetings at Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB), Acorn Energy (Nasdaq: ACFN), Lam Research (Nasdaq: LRCX) and Pandora Media (NYSE: P). VMware (NYSE: VMW) will discuss the future of cloud computing, and the next step for the cloud infrastructure. Oneok Partners (NYSE: OKS) splits 2-for-1.
Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke makes his semi-annual economic testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. Considering the current precarious situation with regard to the debt ceiling issue, the slowing economy and concerns about inflation, this could make for one of the most interesting testimonies in history. Yours truly will be glued to C-Span or some other resource. The Fed’s Eric Rosengren and Richard Fisher also speak on Wednesday.
Import and Export Prices will be reported for the month of June at 8:30 AM ET. Economists are looking for import price decline of 0.6%, which compares against the 0.2% increase seen in May. Oil prices began to ease in June after running higher on the Libyan civil war. Rising awareness of the importance of gasoline prices on the domestic economy in the U.S. led to pressure on OPEC and a Saudi production increase, plus the release of some strategic reserves and help from the IEA. As NATO also stepped up its effort in Libya, and on economic weakness and evidence of demand destruction, oil prices have backed down a bit.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports on mortgage activity in the premarket Wednesday. Last week’s data covering the period ending July 1 showed the Market Composite Index decreased by 5.2%. Refinance activity declined 9.2% against the previous week on a rise in mortgage rates. Purchase activity, however, still managed to increase 4.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The EIA reports on petroleum inventory at 10:30 as always. Last week’s data covering the period ending July 1 showed oil inventory fell by 0.9 million barrels. Crude oil stores remain above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total Motor Gasoline inventory decreased by 0.6 million barrels last week, to within the lower limit of the average range for this time of year.
The monthly Treasury Budget is up for report at 2:00 PM ET Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the deficit to have widened in June to $60.0 billion, versus the May deficit of $57.6 billion.
Retail Sales will be reported for June at 8:30 AM ET. It was a rough month for consumers and that should be reflected in the data. Economists are looking for no change in retail sales on a month-to-month basis, but a 0.1% increase when measuring ex-auto.
Inflation watchers will have a complicated call when Producer Prices come to the wire at 8:30. With the backtracking of petroleum, the economists’ consensus is for the headline PPI to fall by 0.3%, while Core PPI is still seen rising 0.2% in June.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be reported at 8:30 AM ET Thursday as usual. This report will cover the period through July 9. Last week’s data covering the week ending July 2 showed a 14K improvement in claims, to 418K.
Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort measure will be reported at 9:45 AM ET. The report showed deterioration in the consumer mood last week, with the index falling to -45.5.
Business Trade data will be reported at 10:00 AM ET. Business Inventories are seen increasing by 0.8% in May’s report, which compares against the same size increase in April. However, business sales only increased 0.1% in April. This same misalignment was seen in the May Wholesale Trade data, and so may indicate that inventories are building due to sales growth slowing (that’s not good).
Ben Bernanke moves over to the Senate Banking Committee floor Thursday, after testifying to the House panel the day before.
The EIA reports on Natural Gas Status at 10:30 AM EDT Thursday. Last week’s data covering the period ending July 1 showed a net increase of 95 Bcf to natural gas inventory. Stocks were still 224 Bcf short of last year’s mark and 48 Bcf under the five-year average for this time of year.
The corporate wire has a meeting scheduled at H.B. Fuller (NYSE: FUL). An FDA panel reviews Seattle Genetics’ (Nasdaq: SGEN) Hodgkins disease cancer drug. Raptor Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: RPTP) participates in the Cystinosis Research Network Conference.
A busy day closes out the back-end loaded week. Inflation watchers will certainly be attuned to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report for the month of June. The report, due at 8:30 AM, is expected by economists to show a 0.2% decrease of prices on the headline, with gasoline decline leading the way. Core CPI is expected to post 0.2% growth though, so beware the ides of July?
New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey scared the market last month when its business conditions index turned into negative territory with a -7.8 reading. The consensus of economists are looking for an index mark of 8.0 this month, with the economists’ range set from 3.0 to 15.0.
Industrial Production will be reported for June at 9:15 AM ET Friday. Economists are looking for production to have increased by 0.4% in June, and capacity utilization to have improved two-tenths to 76.9%.
The University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment Index is due for report at 10:00 AM. Economists are looking for sentiment to moderate to 71.0, from 71.5 at the end of June.
China will offer several economic reports Friday, covering GDP, PPI, Retail Sales and Industrial Production.
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