This Wall Street Week before Memorial Day Weekend has a feel of fall to it, with rain littering the five-day forecast on the East Coast. The week brings a revision to GDP and new data on housing, manufacturing and consumer spending and confidence. The G-8 is gathering, as is the OECD, and there's a summit planned between Japan and the EU.
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Wall Street Week Before Memorial Day
The week regularly starts off light on economic data, and this week is no exception. We’ve just the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index to look forward to on Monday morning at 8:30 AM ET. This latest report covers the month of April. March’s data showed improvement over February, with a reading of +0.26.
The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority holds its annual meeting on Monday. In the evening, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard gives a speech on monetary policy and the economy.
Speaking from Russia, look for the early AM speech by Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren. The Boston Bank’s Chief will be discussing a framework for financial stability and regulatory priorities. Also before the bell, Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth Duke will talk to financial education at Boston University. After the bell at 9:50, Kansas City Fed Bank President Thomas Hoenig addresses the 29th Annual Monetary and Trade Conference in Philadelphia. James Bullard addresses a group in Missouri after lunch.
Tuesday offers the regular weekly same-store sales data from the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Redbook. Last week’s report from the ICSC, covering the period ending May 14, showed sales fell 2.0% from the prior week. When matched against the prior year period, sales increased 3.2%. Redbook had year-over-year sales falling 2.3%.
New Home Sales will be reported for the month of April at 10:00 AM ET. Last month’s data showed sales running at an annual pace of 300K. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg see April’s pace matching that rate, with the range extending from 285K to 320K.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the U.S. Congress just days after President Obama shocked him with a suggestion to push back Israel’s borders. The American Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, will not be in town Tuesday, as she addresses the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) annual forum in Paris. The President will be in Britain, after having visited Ireland Monday.
The IAEA sends a group to Japan to study the nuclear disaster and the current situation. Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) CEO James Gorman addresses the Japan Society.
Durable Goods Orders will be reported for the month of April at 8:30 AM ET. Last month’s report showed orders grew by 4.1% after revision. This month, economists are looking for orders to have fallen 3.0% in April, with the range of forecasts spanning -5.7% to +0.5%. The range is so wide because of the high ticket price of durable goods such as airplanes etc.
The regular mortgage activity data is due from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) in the premarket. Last week’s data covering the period ending May 13 showed the Market Composite Index gained 7.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis, aided greatly by recently discounted mortgage rates. Last week’s activity was driven by refinancing, as the Refinance Index jumped 13.2%, while the Purchase Index declined by 3.2%.
The FHFA House Price Index is due for release at 10:00 AM ET. At last check, the index fell 1.6% from January to February. Also on Wednesday, the House Financial Services Committee is holding a hearing on housing. The House Financial Services Committee will also take up the idea of ending the bailout of the government sponsored enterprises, namely Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA.OB) and Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC.OB).
The Senate Banking Committee is examining derivatives clearinghouses, and the SEC is considering whistleblower incentives and protections. Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota addresses a group in Minnesota at 1:00 PM.
The EIA reports on Petroleum Status at 10:30 AM ET Wednesday morning. The last data covering the period ending May 13 showed crude oil inventory was unchanged, while total motor gasoline stocks increased by 0.1 million barrels. Oil inventory was above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year, while gasoline was within the lower limit of the average range.
The focus on Thursday morning will be on the first quarter GDP revision. The Advance Estimate showed GDP only grew at a rate of 1.8%. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg see the revision taking the rate up to 2.1%, with the range spanning 1.9% to 2.6%.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims are due for release at 8:30 AM ET. Last week’s data covering the period ending May 14 showed claims fell by 29K against the prior week, to 409K. The four-week moving average for claims now sits at 439K.
The EIA’s latest Natural Gas Report covering the period ending May 13 showed a net increase of 92 Bcf from the previous week. Natural gas stores now sit at 36 Bcf below their five-year average for this time of year. The report will be published at 10:30 AM ET.
The Senate Banking Committee examines the future of housing finance Thursday. The Group of 8 draws the powerhouse nations’ leaders for a summit in France through Friday.
Friday brings the monthly Personal Income and Outlays data for the month of April. The data for March showed a 0.5% increase in income, 0.6% increase in spending and a 0.1% increase in the Core PCE Price Index. Economists are looking for a 0.4% increase in both income and spending for April and a 0.2% increase in the Core PCE Price Index.
At 9:55 AM ET, look for the Reuters/ University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The report for mid-May showed an increase of 2.6 points to a mark of 72.4, which is still a relatively low level of confidence. Economists are looking for this final reading of the month to show a slight increase to 72.5.
At 10:00 AM ET, look for the latest Pending Home Sales Index for the month of April. The index increased 5.1% to 94.1 in March. It was still 11.4% below the prior year reading, which was supported by tax incentive driven activity.
The bond market closes at 2:00 PM ET in advance of the Memorial Day weekend.
Hyundai Motors meets with investors and Friday’s EPS schedule includes news from Graham (AMEX: GHM), Mentor Graphics (Nasdaq: MENT), Shiloh Industries (Nasdaq: SHLO) and several foreign companies.
On Saturday, Japan holds a summit with the European Union.
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