Our weekly stock market planner focuses on the monthly inflation barometers, with the PPI and CPI data due Thursday and Friday. Alcoa leads off the earnings season with its EPS report on Monday. There'll be meetings of the G-20, World Bank, IMF and BRIC nations this week as well, so we'll be kept busy on all fronts.
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Weekly Stock Market Planner
With a dearth of economic data due Monday, the market and your weekly stock market planner focus on two things. The release of the details of the fiscal budget legislation for fiscal 2011 (ending September) should have political pundits, and everyone else, arguing over where budget cuts occurred and where they did not. By no means is the legislation a given for passage either, especially considering Tea Party voices, but given the fact that we're only talking about a few months worth of jurisdiction, we expect more hoopla than holdup this week. The budget should get passed by week's close.
The secondary issue of interest Monday should be the informal start to corporate earnings season, which kicks off with Alcoa's (NYSE: AA) after market release. Earnings season does not kick into gear though until a week or two later. Monday's schedule includes only Chemspec (NYSE: CPC), Inx Inc. (Nasdaq: INXI), Joes Jeans (Nasdaq: JOEZ), Skystar Bio Pharmaceutical (Nasdaq: SKBI) and The Shaw Group (Nasdaq: SHAW). IPAA OGIS New York hosts presentations by Approach Resources (Nasdaq: AREX), Concho Resources (NYSE: CXO), Gulfport Energy (Nasdaq: GPOR), Venoco (NYSE: VQ). LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) has an investor day scheduled for Monday, and Chevron (NYSE: CVX) will give its interim update. Tribune may present its bankruptcy exit plan.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) publishes its World Economic Outlook Monday. It should be interesting, just one week after the ECB raised interest rates, Portugal requested rescue and Libyan oil supplies came under further pressure.
While the new budget will likely still be the hot focus of the day, Tuesday offers several important trade data points. Both International Trade and Import/Export Prices data are due for release at 8:30 AM ET. February's International Trade report is expected by economists to show the trade deficit narrowed to $44 billion in February, versus the $46.3 billion deficit in January.
March Import and Export Prices will be reported before the bell as well Tuesday. February's data showed a 1.2% Export Price increase over January and 1.4% Import Price rise. We do not have economists' expectations for these figures, but we expect further price increase, driven by higher commodity price increase.
Tuesday offers the monthly Small Business Optimism Index, reported by our friend and Dean ,William Dunkelberg, at the NFIB. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) measures the outlook and offers the interpretation of current business conditions, as seen by small businessmen. Our anecdotal interpretation exposed a shaky state of affairs through the winter months of January and February, with little life in March. However, we're noting hope (based on actions not words) now in the small businessmen we know, with a note of caution and concern remaining in the tone of their conversation.
Tuesday produces the Weekly Same-Store Sales data from the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Redbook. Chain Store sales were reported for March last week, and while still sad in absolute terms, they exceeded the low-bar set by industry analysts. This week produces the Retail Sales data for March, and so this weekly data-point offers an appetizer before the real meal is served. Last week's ICSC data covering the period ending April 2, 2011, showed weekly sales gained 2.3% (against prior week's 0.2% increase), while yearly sales improved 2.8% (2.6% week before). Redbook differed this week, with its contrasting growth measurement of just 0.5% annually for the period.
It will be apropos when the Treasury reports on its Monthly Budget at 2:00 PM ET Tuesday, given the 2011 budget should pass through Congress this week. Economists are looking for March's deficit to measure $189 billion, less than the $222.5 billion seen in February. Over the past 10 years, the average deficit for the month of March has been $77.5 billion; over the last five years, the average deficit has been about $98.6 billion. Through the first five months of the government's fiscal year (ending September), the deficit stood at $641.3 billion.
The CFTC is due to propose new requirements on swap margins Tuesday. CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler and SEC Chairwoman Mary Shapiro testify before a Senate panel Tuesday on financial reform. Also, look for premarket coverage of New York Fed President William Dudley's speech from Hong Kong.
Novartis' (NYSE: NVS) new Afinitor cancer treatment gets reviewed by an FDA advisory panel. IPO lockup curbs expire on Body Central (Nasdaq: BODY) and Tower International (Nasdaq: TOWR). Nordson (Nasdaq: NDSN) splits its shares 2-for-1. Analysts meetings are scheduled at Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), Posco (NYSE: PKX), Quidel (Nasdaq: QDEL), Supergen (Nasdaq: SUPG) and Transatlantic Petroleum (AMEX: TAT). The ISI Group Retail Summit highlights a presentation by Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT). IPAA OGIS New York highlights presentations by Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD), Range Resources (NYSE: RRC), Berry Petroleum (NYSE: BRY) and Energen (NYSE: EGN).
The day's EPS schedule includes Art's Way Manufacturing (Nasdaq: ARTW), Biomet (Nasdaq: BMET), Fastenal (Nasdaq: FAST), Mistras Group (NYSE: MG), Streamline Health Solutions (Nasdaq: STRM) and a few others.
Headlines Wednesday will be commandeered by March's Retail Sales Report, due for release at 8:30 AM ET. The pace of sales is expected to ease some, but remain positive based on the views of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The consensus forecast is for an increase of 0.5%, which compares with the 1.0% sales increase marked in February. The range of views spans from no change to 1.2% growth. When excluding autos, economists are looking for sales growth of 0.7%, matching February's pace.
Following last week's Wholesale Trade data, Wednesday produces the Business Trade Report. On the Wholesale level, we saw inventories grow at a marked pace above sales levels. The only economists forecast available for the business trade data is the inventory projection. Inventories are seen increasing 0.8% in February, down from the 0.9% increase in January. However, you will want to note the difference between sales and inventories to get a better idea about the positioning of businesses and recent sales activity.
The regular mortgage activity data will be reported in the early AM Wednesday. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported last week for the period ending April 1. Despite relatively unchanged interest rates through that period, the Market Composite Index fell 2.0%. However, while the Refinance Index dropped 6.2%, the Purchase Activity Index gained 6.7% on increased FHA sponsored activity. The spurt, however, was more likely driven by a scheduled increase in FHA insurance premiums or the threat of government shutdown than by a pickup in home purchases. We will get a better idea of that this week.
Look for the EIA's Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 Wednesday. Last week's report covering the period ending April 1 showed crude oil inventory increased by 2.0 million barrels to a level above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Gasoline inventory decreased by 0.4 million barrels, and stood at a level only within the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.
The Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book of regional economic activity at 2:00 PM ET. Keeping on DC doings, a Senate Armed Services panel examines fiscal 2012 defense spending.
GFMS will issue its annual gold survey.
The corporate wire offers Fresnillo's (OTC: FNLPF.PK) production report. Lehman Brothers, or the remnants of, is dealing with a group of creditors in bankruptcy court. Telefonica (NYSE: TEF) will meet with investors in London, while Carnival (NYSE: CCL) does so here. IPAA OGIS New York highlights presentations by Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN), Eagle Rock Energy Partners (Nasdaq: EROC) and QR Energy (NYSE: QRE).
The day's earnings schedule highlights news from J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), ADTRAN (Nasdaq: ADTN), Bank of the Ozarks (Nasdaq: OZRK), Flanders (Nasdaq: FLDR), Hooker Furniture (Nasdaq: HOFT), Lentuo International (NYSE: LAS), Northern Technologies International (Nasdaq: NTIC), Pacific Continental (Nasdaq: PCBK) and Universal Forest Products (Nasdaq: UFPI).
New World Order protesters will likely gather in Washington on Thursday, as finance ministers and central bankers of the G-20 get together to discuss... we suppose, how to best manage the global economy through bifurcated recovery/hell. Meanwhile, across the world, leaders of BRIC nations, including Brazil, Russia, India and China, attend a summit in China.
The US economic board will garner plenty of attention Thursday, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled for report at 8:30 AM ET. Economists expect the PPI to have risen by 1.0% in March, versus the 1.6% increase reported for February. The Core PPI, excluding food and energy, is seen increasing a relatively hefty 0.2%, matching February's rise.
The regular jobless claims report comes due at 8:30 AM ET Thursday. Last week's data covering the period ending April 2 showed weekly initial jobless claims improved to 382K. The consensus of economists surveyed by Bloomberg sees 380K this week, but this forecast has a tendency toward error, given it simply reflects the near week's result in most circumstances. It thus misses dynamic factors that sway the data weekly.
Last week's EIA Natural Gas Report covering the period ending April 1, showed a net draw of 45 Bcf from storage. Natural gas inventory stood 86 Bcf last than last year, but 10 Bcf above the 5-year average for this time of year.
Federal Reserve representatives Narayana Kocherlakota, Charles Plosser and Jeffrey Lacker are all scheduled to speak Thursday. A panel of the House of Representatives ironically examines the oversight of the financial stability oversight panel.
The corporate wire includes BP's (NYSE: BP) annual meeting. Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI) offers a detailed notice of its mineral resource and reserves. Meeting with analysts, Accenture (NYSE: ACN), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), Human Genome Sciences (Nasdaq: HGSI) and Weingarten Realty (NYSE: WRI, NYSE: WRD).
Reporting earnings, look for news from Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), Ameramex (Nasdaq: AMMX), CheckPoint Software (Nasdaq: CHKP), Cherokee (Nasdaq: CHKE), China Industrial Waste (Nasdaq: CIWT), Christopher & Banks (NYSE: CBK), Commerce Bancshares (Nasdaq: CBSH), Cubist Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: CBST), Fairchild Semiconductor (NYSE: FCS), Hasbro (NYSE: HAS), Independent Bank (Nasdaq: IBCP), Independent Bank (Massachusetts) (Nasdaq: INDB), Kayne Anderson Energy (NYSE: KED), Medtox Scientific (Nasdaq: MTOX), Mission West Properties (Nasdaq: MSW), Progressive (NYSE: PGR), Prosperity Bancshares (Nasdaq: PRSP), Supervalu (NYSE: SVU), Valmont Industries (NYSE: VMI) and Zoo Entertainment (Nasdaq: ZOOG).
An abnormally active slate of economic reports meets the market on Friday, but you should note that your taxes are not due until Monday. This 15th of April is a holiday for the District of Columbia, and so the deadline to file moves forward to Monday.
First and foremost, the market will be extremely interested in the premarket release of the Consumer Price Index for March. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are looking for a CPI increase of 0.5%, against February's equal rise. When excluding food and energy, Core CPI is seen rising 0.2%, matching February's increase. That is not a negligible rise in prices.
Next in importance should be the Industrial Production Report for the month of March, due for 9:15 publishing. Economists expect production increased 0.6% in March, after the 0.1% drop in February. Capacity Utilization is seen increasing to 77.3%, from the 76.3% level of usage in February. Something is not right about this figure, as it's too big for a monthly change in capacity utilization.
The New York Fed will report its Empire State Manufacturing Index at 8:30 AM ET. The measure of NY area manufacturing is expected to stick at 17.5 in April, but the range of forecasts spans from 8.0 to 21.1, so don't be fooled into complacency by the consensus average.
The Treasury International Capital (TIC) Report is due for 9:00 AM release. There's no estimate for February; January's data showed foreign demand for long-term US securities slipped some, to $51.5 billion, from $62.5 billion in December 2010.
The University of Michigan/ Reuters Consumer Sentiment Index is up for report at 9:55 AM ET. This April reading is seen improving to 69.0, which would be up from March's final reading of 67.5. Confidence measures are down significantly this year, and wouldn't seem ready to give up concern yet considering the steady rise of gasoline prices.
Fed speakers Thomas Hoenig and Charles Evans both find microphones Friday.
The corporate wire also interests investors this busy Friday, with earnings reports from Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Genuine Parts (NYSE: GPC), Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW), Duckwall AICO (Nasdaq: DUCK), Knoll (NYSE: KNL), Mattel (NYSE: MAT) and Webster Financial (NYSE: WBS). Nestle' reports first quarter sales. Syngenta (NYSE: SYT) offers a trading statement. RF Industries (Nasdaq: RFIL) splits its shares 2-for-1.
The BioCentury Future Leaders in the Biotech Industry Conference highlights presentations by AVI BioPharma (Nasdaq: AVII), Curis (Nasdaq: CRIS) and Pacira Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: PCRX), PharmAthene (AMEX: PIP).
The weekly stock market planner extends into the weekend this period, as the IMF and World Bank meet on Saturday.
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