Our morning market report, known as "Morning Greek," offers a value added business news summary each day. The "Greek Factor" ranges from +3 to -3, and is a subjective measure of The Greek's view of the market impact of individual and aggregate news and the day's scheduled events. This morning's business news summary covers the Housing Starts Report, weekly same-store sales data, DC happenings, global affairs and corporate events news. However, stocks are not going to do much until 2:15 ET, heading into the Fed news release.
Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.
The FOMC monetary policy release should keep traders from pulling the trigger until 2:15 today. Regarding the Fed's release, I expect the respect given to economic growth moderation within it might reinforce recent investor concerns and remind Tea Party victory enthused profiteers about what ails the market still. That said, if the Fed speaks positively about its ability to manage the economy, then the market might again rally short-term. The FOMC really holds the day in its hands. Enjoy your business news summary!
ICSC Weekly Same-Store Sales Greek Factor: -1
There seems to be some confusion with regard to the wild swings in the weekly sales data, at least for investors and publishers unfamiliar with Wall Street Greek anyway. We've written that the September data around the Labor Day holiday and the start of the school year should sway due to holiday variation between weeks and years. We're glad you're reading, and we hope you appreciate insight like this.
The latest ICSC Weekly Store Sales swung 1.4% lower in the period ended September 18 and +3.3% year-to-year. Redbook posted only a 2.2% year-to-year sales gain for the same period. We have assigned a negative Greek Factor rating to this data, only because the market is unfortunately not yet efficiently aware of Wall Street Greek. Thus, you should appreciate your opportunity to enjoy arbitrage.
Housing Starts Greek Factor: 0
Housing Starts improved sharply in August, rising to an annual rate of 598K. The month's result sharply exceeded economists' consensus expectations for 550K. It also exceeded July's revised reading of 541K by 10.5%. This is certainly good news, and we expect directly tied to the rock bottom mortgage rates recently reached; we've been introducing the idea that traction might finally have been discovered at these rate marks. It will be a tough trick to turn though, keeping rates low in the advent of any sort of economic revival or hint of inflation. The hope is that normal home demand will resume simultaneously. Single-family home starts improved 4.3% in August, to a still sad annual rate of 438K.
Building Permits also increased in August, rising 1.8%, to an annual rate of 569K. Single-family permitting fell 1.2%, to a rate of 401K. Unfortunately, the less improved permitting activity and decline in the single-family segment should mute the initial positive impact of the report before too long. Futures did rise on its release though.
FOMC Policy Announcement Greek Factor: -1
The Federal Open Market Committee announces monetary policy at 2:15 ET. The Fed men are widely expected to keep rates steady at the rock bottom mark of 0% to 0.25%. Where expectations offer variation is in how the Fed will speak of its efforts toward quantitative easing. Also, there should be close inspection of any dissention within the group, and the details of quantitative measures. There is risk tied to the level of concern expressed by the Fed with regard to the current economic outlook. Recently, Fed speakers have acknowledged a moderation in economic growth and a risk for further deterioration. I see more risk to the downside on this data point, given the specter of concern with regard to the expressed view of economic conditions. I should note, though, that there is also the possibility that comfortable confidence expressed by the Fed might give confidence to traders. The FOMC really holds the day in its hands.
Senate Hearing on Job Creation Greek Factor: 0
The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing to study infrastructure spending options and the President's recent ideas, with intent to help job creation. The Republican side will of course bring public attention to the cost of such measures, without regard for the income and job creation such efforts should create. Such is political perversion, which we note, occurs on both sides of the table.
The United Nations General Assembly begins in New York City. Must see TV coverage can be found at C-SPAN and on the web there.
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