Your market warm-up for Monday includes a slew of economic and earnings reports.
Markos N. Kaminis earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, and Mr. Kaminis has appeared across major media. While writing for Wall Street Greek, he presciently predicted the financial crisis in detail.
Your workweek gets busy quickly, as three economic reports are slated for Monday morning. Before the bell rings, we'll hear about the state of affairs in New York area manufacturing and foreign trade in US securities. Then before you catch your second wind and finish your first coffee, homebuilders will offer their latest take on construction activity.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey was one of the latest economic data points to make us look psychic, or at least really smart. In July, it dropped about 15 points to a mark of 5.08. That move solidified the cement within the form we laid out. Manufacturing, the column of economic support and the main component of growth for the economy, was giving way. Economists are looking for a slight adjustment higher in August, to a reading of 8.0. Like the latest consumer sentiment data, we do not think a few points here or there really matter, as the news would be bad (or not good enough) either way.
The Treasury International Capital (TIC) Report is due at 9:00 AM. June's data will compare against May's $35.4 billion in net foreign purchases of long-term securities. While August could show an uptick in such investment on the nascent flight to quality, June might not be as special. There is no economists' consensus forecast for the data point.
The final economic report comes from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). This biased organization has been unable to hide the bad mood of its members. The home building environment, given the flood of distressed property to housing inventory, the new lending standards being employed by banks, and the deteriorated credit standing of Americans on average, has soured all hope. There's no consensus estimate for the Housing Market Index. However, we do not see a complex set of possibilities. Rather, the same sorry state should prove through again in August. July's report marked the second consecutive decline, to a reading of 14, the lowest level since April 2009.
US hedge funds file quarterly statements of holdings, an off-radar data point that might show where smart money is parked. General Motors might file its IPO registration with the SEC as early as today, and likely sometime this week. Alcon (NYSE: ACL) shareholders vote on board members, as Novartis (NYSE: NVS) seeks to gain a majority stake.
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