Trader data has recovered slightly in the past week for U.S. banks, with the three-month Eurodollar large speculator total open interest shooting up from last week's depressed levels. That's good news as this data correlates nicely with U.S. financials. On the other hand, the small trader total open interest took a haircut this past week, as you can see from my latest signals table, which I've just updated. That data also correlates with financials, so the data is a bit mixed.My trading setup for the BKX U.S. Bank Index remains bearish for its second straight week. But with two of the three components that make it up now bullish and the third just a mite away from flipping to bullish, this correction may not last too much longer.
Also interesting, positioning in S&P 500 futures and options suggests the bull market rally is still going strong. The "smart money" commercial hedgers remain solidly behind the rally, while wrong-way small traders are still as hopelessly bearish as ever. In fact, this past week saw them grow a tad more bearish in their relative positioning. They've been tilting against the rally since early January. Doh! In other news, natural gas, which has been bullish for four weeks, goes to cash on Monday's open of trading. As well, my gold setup remains bullish for its fifth straight week. The data shows a third consecutive week of rallying large speculator net positioning and total open interest - both of which correlate strongly with gold prices the following week. Also, my setup for the 30-year Treasury bond goes bullish, meaning yields would fall. But not all is bullish across the land. My trading setup for crude oil goes bearish on Monday's open. Good luck this week, and be sure to check back in Monday or Tuesday for an update to my portfolio page. TAGS: SPX, S&P 500, gold, BKX, Bank Index, natural gas, Nikkei, crude oil, Treasury, bond, COT, Commitments of Traders,derivatives, Black Swans, market timing, trading system development, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission,COTs Timer, out-of-sample testing, walk-around testing